[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171959
SWODY1
SPC AC 171957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PSX 20 SE DRT
...CONT... 30 SE P07 10 ENE CNM 15 NNE 4CR 10 N ONM 40 N SVC 65 E
DUG ...CONT... 15 W YUM 40 SW EED 60 NNE DAG 60 NNE BFL 40 WSW TVL
35 SW MFR 15 NNE OLM ...CONT... 65 NW DVL 40 E PIR 40 NW OFK 25 ESE
HSI 55 NNW GCK 50 SSE CDS 40 WNW MWL 40 NNW TYR 30 NW ELD 65 N LIT
15 SSE STL 10 N CGX 20 NNE MBL 10 NE APN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN U.S. AND GULF STATES INTO TN VALLEY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS OH VALLEY.  BAND OF 35
KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDED FROM ERN NEB/ERN KS TO ACROSS THE
OZARKS...WITH 30 KT OF FLOW OVER THE INLAND GULF STATES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE STRONGER UPSTREAM FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES AFTER 03Z.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FROM THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST
TO COASTAL AREAS OF GA TO SRN NC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.  20-25 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITHIN THIS AREA...WITH
A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. 
FURTHER N ACROSS ERN TN AND THE INLAND GULF COAST STATES...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAKER.  THUS...LOW
PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LEE TROUGH ALONG THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS.  SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THIS TROUGH ARE
MAINTAINING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.  THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS RESULTING IN AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN MT TO THE WRN DAKOTAS.  VIS
IMAGERY SHOWED CU AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN MT TO THE BLACK HILLS OF NERN WY/
WRN SD.  ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A THREAT ALSO FOR DEVELOPMENT IN SRN
SASKATCHEWAN.

THE MODERATE INSTABILITY /WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY INTO SWRN
SASKATCHEWAN/ AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS FOR A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS.  LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE U.S...BUT STRONGER INSTABILITY IN
SRN CANADA MAY SUPPORT A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.  ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE SEWD WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS
MOVING SEWD OUT OF SRN CANADA TONIGHT.

...INTERIOR WRN STATES...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES COMBINED WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AS
ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE VALLEYS THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..PETERS.. 07/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.