[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171619
SWODY1
SPC AC 171617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW DVL 40 E PIR 40
NW OFK 25 ESE HSI 55 NNW GCK 50 SSE CDS 35 N MWL 25 SSW PRX 35 SSW
HOT 65 N LIT 15 SSE STL 10 N CGX 20 NNE MBL 10 NE APN ...CONT... 30
SE P07 10 ENE CNM 15 NNE 4CR 10 N ONM 40 N SVC 65 E DUG ...CONT...
15 W YUM 40 SW EED 60 NNE DAG 60 NNE BFL 40 WSW TVL 35 SW MFR 15 NNE
OLM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW 3B1 25 SSE
CAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PSX 20 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CTB 30 SE LVM 35
SSW LND 35 NNE LAR 55 W CDR 40 N 81V 50 N GGW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT RIDGE REMAINS OVER ROCKIES WITH CENTER OVER NRN NM. BROAD
TROUGH ERN U.S. WITH UPPER LOW CENTER ACROSS OH MOVING LITTLE. WEAK
S/WV TROUGHS DROPPING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WEAK
COLD FRONT FROM LOWER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO N TX WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
SEWD.

...GULF STATES AND SERN U.S...
S OF COLD FRONT AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND VARIABLY UNSTABLE. THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE GULF STATES TO S OF FRONT THIS
MORNING...COUPLED WITH THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESULTS IN
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY. 

RICH TROPICAL INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE
AROUND 20KT OF FLOW WILL SUPPORT A PULSE STORM MODE.  WITH MLCAPES
BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM 2000-3000 J/KG...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND THREAT.  

INLAND GULF STATES...SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS 30KT OF 500MB FLOW AND 60-70KT 300 MB JET MAX MOVES
THRU BOTTOM OF TROUGH POSITION.  HOWEVER WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES 6C/KM OR LESS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO E OF NRN ROCKIES LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.  WITH LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 8C/KM AND MDT/STG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WRN
SD/NEB AND MOVE SEWD ON THE E SIDE  OF WRN RIDGE.  LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES  SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF
SEVERE THREAT. ADDITIONALLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION COULD MOVE SEWD
OUT OF SRN CANADA TONIGHT WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED.

...INTERIOR WRN U.S...
MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NWD ON THE W SIDE OF ROCKIES
RIDGE. STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  AS STORMS MOVE INTO 
ADJACENT VALLEYS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.