[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180056
SWODY1
SPC AC 180054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 10 ENE CNM
15 NNE 4CR 10 N ONM 40 N SVC 65 E DUG ...CONT... 15 W YUM 40 SW EED
60 NNE DAG 60 NNE BFL 40 WSW TVL 35 SW MFR 15 NNE OLM ...CONT... 70
NE MOT 40 E PIR 40 NNE BUB 50 SSW HSI 45 SSW RSL 35 WSW CSM 25 S SPS
40 NNW TYR 30 NW ELD 65 N LIT 15 SSE STL 10 N CGX 20 NNE MBL 10 NE
APN ...CONT... 15 SW PSX 20 SE DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN CAROLINAS...
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
PROPAGATING EWD INTO THE REGION HAS HELPED MAINTAIN STRONG TSTM
CLUSTERS THIS EVENING FROM THE SC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE NC PIEDMONT
REGION. MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
IS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY / I.E. MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG / OBSERVED ON THE 00Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING AS LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE WEAK AND LESS THAN MOIST ADIABATIC.
MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS
AIRMASS SLOWLY STABILIZES.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG
COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS DELTA REGION SWWD INTO CNTRL TX
/N OF AUS/. STRONGEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF TX PORTION OF
FRONT...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...IS RESULTING IN
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG EWD
INTO NRN LA. ONGOING STORMS FROM NWRN MS INTO NRN LA AND E-CNTRL TX
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE/PROPAGATE SSEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS
TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER COLD POOLS. GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION/FORWARD-PROPAGATION POTENTIAL...THUS ONLY WARRANTING
LOW PROBABILITIES.

...NERN NM INTO THE TX PNHDL...
LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED OVER NERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SEWD ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE/WEAK
BOUNDARY INTO THE SRN TX PNHDL. THOUGH 00Z AMA SOUNDING SHOWED
STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 3-4KM AGL...OVERALL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WAS RELATIVELY WEAK. MOREOVER...LAPSE RATES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC WERE LIMITING MLCAPES TO BELOW
1000 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING COLD POOL
OVER NERN NM. ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX PNHDL.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WRN ND /NE OF DIK/ WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS PER 00Z BIS
SOUNDING. ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGESTS
THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...SLIGHT RISK DOES
NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.

...NRN ROCKIES...
TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS FROM THE GREAT BASIN NWD INTO ERN WA AND ID  WITHIN PLUME
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. THOUGH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ONLY MARGINAL...00Z BOI SOUNDING
INDICATED A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND 600MB WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS.

..MEAD.. 07/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.