[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 162058
SWODY1
SPC AC 162056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
HOT 40 N GWO 45 SW CBM 25 NE LUL 25 NNE MCB 30 W HEZ 40 E SHV 30 SSW
HOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
BVE 40 ESE LFT 40 NE LCH 35 NE LFK 15 ENE MLC 10 NNE MKO 50 WSW ARG
40 SSW JBR 10 WSW MEM 45 WNW MSL 50 SSE MSL 30 W LGC 10 ESE TOI 20
NE CEW 40 WSW PNS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
CID 10 ESE MSN 40 W MKG 15 S GRR 15 S JXN 30 W FDY 30 W DAY 35 SW
HUF 30 E COU 35 W COU 35 S P35 30 SSW DSM 25 NNE CID.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S
FLG 50 NNW SAD 15 SSW SAD 40 S SAD 30 W TUS 55 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 10
SW IGM 55 NNW PRC 15 S FLG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 40 NE HOU 10
N LFK 45 SSE PRX 40 SSW CDS 40 ENE LVS 10 NNW LVS 10 ESE SAF 20 ENE
ABQ 35 ESE TCS 15 W ELP ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35
WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50
ENE 63S ...CONT... 50 NNW MOT 40 ESE Y22 40 NNE LBF 30 NE DDC 25 E
P28 30 W CNU 30 NE OMA 40 ESE EAU 20 NE IWD ...CONT... 10 SE ACY DOV
10 ESE BWI 15 SSE HGR 10 ESE PIT 20 SW HLG 15 SSE TRI 30 WNW AHN 40
NE MCN 40 SSE AGS 30 S FLO 35 SE EWN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SRN/SERN AR...NERN LA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN
AZ...

...LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM MS INTO WRN AL.  THE
CLUSTERS ACROSS NRN MS AND ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER EACH HAVE COLD
POOLS WITH THEM...BUT THEY ARE NOT VERY STRONG.  THE STORMS ACROSS
NRN MS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SSEWD INTO THE EVENING.  THE OVERALL
SEVERE INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...DUE TO DECREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN MS/WRN
AL FROM ONGOING STORMS AND WEAK COLD POOL WITH NRN MS STORM CLUSTER.


HOWEVER...THE 18Z ETA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AR INTO NRN LA AND WRN MS BY
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THUS...A MODERATE RISK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THESE REGIONS WITH A SWD EXTENSION INTO
MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL AR AND NERN LA.  AN MCV CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS WILL MOVE SSEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD RESULTING IN
INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR...WITH INITIATION
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF A TRIPLE POINT OVER NERN-ERN OK OR
INTO WRN AR BY EARLY EVENING.  AIR MASS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK IS
VERY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK INHIBITION WHICH WILL SUPPORT A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS.  18Z ETA SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A MODERATE
RISK FOR A BOW ECHO PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AR/NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS.

...MIDWEST...
AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN WI/ERN IA AND
NRN IL/NERN MO IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS
NERN WI ATTM.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT...NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COMBINED WITH INCREASED LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS UNTIL EARLY EVENING
WHEN THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE. 

...AZ...
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL MCV OVER CENTRAL AZ
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 
GIVEN ONGOING ACTIVITY WITH NEW STORMS EXPECTED AND STRONG HEATING
IN THE DESERT VALLEYS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  THUS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...REFER
TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1711.

...NRN ROCKIES...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
COMBINED WITH NRN EXTENT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

..PETERS.. 07/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.