[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161612
SWODY1
SPC AC 161610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW
JBR 45 S JBR 20 W MEM 50 WSW CBM 25 ESE JAN 25 NNE HEZ 15 SSW MLU 20
NE ELD 25 SSW LIT 25 N LIT 60 SSW JBR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE
HUF 25 ENE JEF 35 NNE SZL 10 E LWD 30 E DSM 30 W CID 10 SW DBQ 25 NE
JVL 20 ENE MKE 25 WSW MKG 10 E AZO 35 NE FWA 20 SSW DAY 10 SSE HUF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
MSY 40 NE LCH 25 SSE SHV 45 NW TXK 40 WSW MLC 30 NW FSI 55 W CSM 65
WSW GAG 30 ESE LBL 20 W P28 25 ESE ICT CNU 15 NE UMN 30 WSW UNO 35
WSW POF 15 WNW DYR 45 SE MKL 30 NW BHM 35 NNE SEM 35 SW TOI 15 NNW
CEW 40 E MSY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 20 ESE DAG
60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20
SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S ...CONT... 50 NNW MOT 40 ESE Y22 40 WNW BBW 40
NNE HLC OMA 15 S RST 20 NE IWD ...CONT... 10 SE ACY DOV 10 ESE BWI
15 SSE HGR 10 ESE PIT 20 SW HLG 15 SSE TRI 30 WNW AHN 40 NE MCN 40
SSE AGS 30 S FLO 35 SE EWN ...CONT... 50 E PSX 40 NE HOU 10 N LFK 45
SSE PRX 40 SSW CDS 40 ENE LVS 10 NNW LVS 10 ESE SAF 20 ENE ABQ 35
ESE TCS 15 W ELP.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN  AR INTO NRN AND CENTRAL
MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OH VALLEY INTO MID MS
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE WRN RIDGE CONTINUES WITH BROAD TROUGH ERN U.S. NWLY FLOW
PREVAILS FROM NCENTRAL U.S. TO THE SERN STATES.  EMBEDDED IMPULSES
IN THE NWLY FLOW ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV OVER WRN KS.

WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NRN WI SWWD THRU WRN KS TO SRN CO WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY SEWD .  OVERNIGHT MCS NOW MOVING FROM MO INTO AR WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE THRU THE DAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOWER MS
VALLEY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS...
LEADING EDGE OF MCS HAS MOVED INTO NRN AR AND EXPECTED TO
REINTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE MUCAPES
IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG RESIDE. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE MCS CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD MS.  WILL
CONTINUE MDT RISK FOR EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRIMARILY WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL THRU THE AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL NWLY FLOW SHOULD TAKE THE MCS TO THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING.

WELL DEFINED MCV OVER KS WILL MOVE S OF E TOWARD NERN OK AND WRN AR
BY THIS EVENING.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD VICINITY OK/KS
BORDER WILL BE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AIDED BY THE ENHANCED SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION OF THE MCV
MOVING EWD ACROSS KS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK ACROSS OK ALONG
WITH MLCAPES TO ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE WARMEST PART OF
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER LAPSE RATES FROM 8-9C/KM DOES SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL STORMS.
STORMS COULD THEN EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS AS THEY TRACK BACK INTO AR
TONIGHT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

...MID WEST...
REF MCD 1706
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NWLY FLOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS UPPER MS
VALLEY ATTM...WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND S OF WEAK COLD FRONT NOW
MOVING SEWD FROM NRN WI TO SWRN IA.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK BUT
THERE IS NEARLY A 100KT HIGH LEVEL NWLY JET OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION TO STORMS IN THE FORM OF SHORT
LINES/BOWS AS THEY TRACK SE ACROSS MID MS/WRN OH VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO WEAKENING BY LATE EVENING.

...AZ...
NOTICEABLE MID LEVEL COOLING PAST 24 HOURS ON AZ 12Z SOUNDINGS. 
WITH AIR MASS REMAINING VERY MOIST...MDT TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF AZ THIS AFTERNOON. ELY/SELY STEERING FLOW
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING STORMS INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER WITH ONLY 10-15 KT OF DEEP LAYER 
SHEAR DEVELOPMENT INTO THE VALLEYS WILL BE SLOW.  GIVEN THE MUCAPES
UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DOWNBURST
WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  IF LATER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
STRONGER STEERING FLOW THAN NOW EXPECTED THEN AREA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED.

...NRN ROCKIES...
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ON TOP OF THE LARGE RIDGE
WILL SUPPORT PULSE SEVERE STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURSTS FROM
THE HIGH BASED STORMS. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY  WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.