[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170107
SWODY1
SPC AC 170105

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
SGU 35 WSW GCN 40 W SOW 45 N TUS 70 S GBN 40 S EED 45 SSW LAS 25 N
DRA 40 WNW P38 20 ENE P38 35 SSE SGU.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
7R4 35 N POE 35 WSW PGO 30 W FSM 30 E FYV 10 WSW MEM 50 N MEI 30 W
PNS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
P24 10 W P24 20 E DIK 35 SSE MLS 15 WSW BIL 20 NNE 3HT 40 NNE LWT 15
SW OLF 50 NNW P24.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MOT 45 ESE MOT
25 NW VTN 45 NNW GAG 35 ESE AMA 60 WSW TCC 30 E TCS 35 W ELP
...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25
WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 35 N LFK 20
NNW DAL 15 NW OKC SLN 25 E DSM 40 WSW CWA 15 ESE APN ...CONT... 10
ESE NEL 35 N BWI 20 SSE LBE 30 WNW EKN 30 NE 5I3 50 NNE ATL 35 N MCN
50 S AGS 40 NNW CHS 15 ENE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF AZ AND NV...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF ERN MT THROUGH WRN
ND...

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST AREA NWWD THROUGH WRN MS...THEN
TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL AR. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE LITTLE ROCK 00Z RAOB
SHOWING MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...BUT
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6-7C AT 6 KM. AN MCV CENTERED
OVER NE OK WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING.
MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM ERN OK THROUGH MUCH OF AR...BUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SO FAR BEEN LIMITED.

FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER MAY INCREASE AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE MORE UNSTABLE REGIME OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RESPONSE FROM THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
WHICH MAY INCREASE TO 20 OR 25 KT...ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION AND
LIFT ALONG AND E OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR THROUGH
CNTRL AND SRN MS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THUS POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT STILL EXISTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN EVOLVE
INTO AN MCS. HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES.

...AZ THROUGH SRN NV...

STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING WWD THROUGH THE DESERT VALLEYS OF SRN AZ
AND INTO SRN NV. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT
OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

...CNTRL/ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND...

STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN MT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN ND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD FROM
SRN CANADA MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.



...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AREAS...

WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD FROM PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY S OF A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEWD MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z.
HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA IS LIMITED AND
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.

..DIAL.. 07/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.