[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161217
SWODY1
SPC AC 161215

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
LIT 45 S JBR 20 W MEM 25 WSW UOX 40 NNE JAN 45 W JAN 15 ESE MLU 20
NE ELD 20 ENE HOT 35 N LIT 50 NNE LIT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
ADM 10 E LTS 20 ESE AMA CAO 10 W LHX DDC SLN CNK LNK 10 WSW DSM DBQ
MSN 10 ESE MKG 10 NNE FDY 10 E DAY HUF ALN COU 15 ESE OJC 35 N JLN
20 ENE SGF 20 SE TBN 40 SSE CGI MSL BHM 10 SSE AUO DHN 15 NNE MOB 35
ENE MSY 30 SSE POE 10 S TXK 30 SSE MLC 35 W ADM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N MOT 30 S BIS 15
SE PIR 25 ENE ANW 25 E BUB 10 SE OFK 20 SE SUX 20 WNW FOD 10 ENE MCW
65 N EAU 70 NW CMX ...CONT... 25 NE NEL 10 ENE LBE 35 WNW EKN 20 NNE
BKW 45 S PSK 30 SE CLT 20 SW FLO 40 N HSE ...CONT... 50 WSW GLS 40
NE HOU 10 N LFK 35 SSW PRX 30 NNW MWL 50 SSE CDS 25 SW CVS 25 NNW
CNM 50 N MRF 100 SW P07 ...CONT... 10 SW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35
WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50
ENE 63S.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...PARTS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION....

LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST IN UPPER FLOW REGIME...FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU.  

HIGHEST HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES...WITH RIDGE SHARPENING SOME ALONG AN AXIS NORTHWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS OFF THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC COAST. DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE...AS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. IN RESPONSE...STRONGER BELT
OF NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK...WHICH TOPPED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE YESTERDAY...IS ALREADY DIGGING INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING LARGE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...WHILE ANOTHER
PERTURBATION REMAINS EVIDENT IN LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.  

LATTER FEATURE...ENHANCED BY ASSOCIATED LARGE CENTRAL PLAINS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER YESTERDAY EVENING...EMANATED FROM SUBTROPICAL
MOIST PLUME OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION TODAY...JUST
UPSTREAM OF SYSTEM DIGGING FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF STATES.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE OZARKS
WILL PERSIST INTO MIDDAY.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY
ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER...WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING.  

LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS EXTEND IN TONGUE ALONG AN AXIS FROM
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI.  THIS IS BENEATH NOSE OF LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG CONDITIONAL/CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MEAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE BY AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 4000 J/KG.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INTENSE
UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN/SOME HAIL...WHILE STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF
LARGE STRONG COLD POOL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH BROADER
SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  

SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MUCH OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLY ALABAMA...BEFORE
DIMINISHING NEAR MORE STABLE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...WHILE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS MOIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE AND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH BELT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL AROUND 60F...DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH
MODERATELY SHEARED...RELATIVELY COOL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...MONTANA...
NEAR/JUST EAST OF CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...MODELS SUGGEST WEAK
TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH HEATING IN MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS PRIMARY THREATS.

...ARIZONA...
WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD
THE LOWER DESERTS ON WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY MID/UPPER STEERING
FLOW...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED MICROBURSTS IN ENVIRONMENT
WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  THOUGH MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST
CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE
RISK FOR SOME HAIL.

..KERR/GUYER.. 07/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.