[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160604
SWODY1
SPC AC 160602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW
OLF 30 NNW 4BQ 20 NNW SHR 40 NE WEY 15 SSE HLN 50 NNE 3DU 45 WNW
CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
7R4 15 NNE SHV 35 SE MKO 25 SSW END 20 SE CAO 45 E TAD 35 NW LAA 35
SSW RSL 15 NNE STJ 30 NNE DBQ 40 SSE MKE 15 WSW FWA 30 ESE BWG 25 NW
MSL 40 WSW TCL 25 NE DHN 20 SE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW GLS 40 NE HOU
10 N LFK 15 SE PRX 15 E FSI 40 NW CDS 25 SW CVS 25 NNW CNM 50 N MRF
100 SW P07 ...CONT... 10 SW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45
SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S
...CONT... 65 N MOT 30 S BIS 15 SE PIR 25 ENE ANW 25 E BUB 10 SE OFK
20 SE SUX 20 WNW FOD 10 ENE MCW 65 N EAU 70 NW CMX ...CONT... 25 NE
NEL 10 ENE LBE 35 WNW EKN 20 NNE BKW 45 S PSK 30 SE CLT 20 SW FLO 40
N HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL
MT...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S...

A SURFACE FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS PLAINS...MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY. BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE WRN PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH ERN IA...NRN MO...SERN KS AND NRN OK.
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS FRONT IS DIFFUSE WITH 60S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THE N SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN FROM THE GULF COAST AREA NWWD
THROUGH AR AND INTO NE OK OR SW MO. THESE BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARIES FROM THE WRN GULF COASTAL AREA NWWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK. STORMS NOW
DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS WRN IA AND NRN MO MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS SRN MO BY 12Z.
SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR OR NEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM SRN MO
OR NRN AR AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN VICINITY OF THE SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY FROM SRN KS NEWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO
PARTS OF SRN IA AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SEWD.

A LARGE MCS CURRENTLY PERSISTS ACROSS WRN KS AND CONTINUES
DEVELOPING SEWD. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BECOME THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OR SERN KS INTO
NRN OK. MOREOVER...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WHICH COULD ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF KS AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM LATER TODAY.

SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS N OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM NERN OK...ERN KS INTO MO AND AR WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY TEND TO
EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE
LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS FARTHER S ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF COASTAL AREA NWWD INTO PARTS OF LA. THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER IN THIS AREA AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF MULTICELL STORMS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.


...MT...

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY IN THIS REGION AND
WILL TEND TO SHUNT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES NWD INTO CANADA... LEAVING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE UPPER SUPPORT FOR MT. HOWEVER...ELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS
CNTRL MT UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT
OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL EXIST FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING.


...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREAS...

THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN SERN
CANADA WILL MAINTAIN WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES S OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. THIS AND LACK OF A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SRN MANITOBA WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE WRN
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE FROM SRN WI
SWD THROUGH IL/IND...AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
TO SUPPORT 0-6 SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION
AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MODEST
INSTABILITY SHEAR MAY TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT.

...AZ...

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD WWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS.

..DIAL.. 07/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.