[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160103
SWODY1
SPC AC 160101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW
HVR 20 WNW LWT 45 NNW COD 30 S WEY 45 WSW MQM 15 W MSO 80 ENE 63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
CMX 60 W RHI 30 W RST 20 E P35 UNO 25 SW MEM 45 SW TCL 15 W ABY 20 N
TLH 15 W AQQ ...CONT... 15 SSE HUM 25 SW ELD 40 ESE ICT 35 WSW RSL
20 SW GLD 25 E AKO 20 E SNY 40 SSW MHN 20 SE ANW 25 SSE 9V9 40 SE
MBG 30 E RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW GGW 35 WNW MLS
25 ESE 4BQ 20 SSW MBG 25 NNW JMS 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 10 NW ANJ 30
WNW CGX 40 E BRL 45 E VIH 20 N MEM TCL 35 SE CSG 65 NNW AYS 15 SSW
CHS ...CONT... 60 S CRP 20 NNW ALI 40 NW NIR 50 W LFK 15 S TXK 30
SSE PNC 30 N GAG 10 S CAO 50 WSW TCC 35 N CNM 25 SW FST 85 SW P07
...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 40 WNW DRA 40 S BAM 50 WNW SUN 25 E
S80 GEG 40 NNE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BOS 10 ESE BAF
30 W EWR 35 WNW ABE 20 NNW IPT 25 NW ELM 40 ENE ROC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY
THROUGH PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN MT...

...ERN SD THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

THIS EVENING A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A WEAK LOW
IN NERN SD SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE GULF COASTAL AREA NWWD THROUGH WRN KS. BETWEEN THESE
TWO BOUNDARIES THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG FROM ERN KS...ERN
NEB INTO ERN SD. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE SEWD THIS EVENING THROUGH THE AXIS OF
STRONG INSTABILITY. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS FROM ERN NEB THROUGH
ERN KS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT... RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40
TO 50 KT AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2.
SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MID EVENING WITH BEST TORNADO
THREAT FROM ERN NEB INTO SE SD...WRN IA AND NE KS.
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD AND FOR NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE FROM SERN NEB...WRN IA...NE KS AND NW MO. THIS
ACTIVITY MIGHT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS WITH PRIMARY
THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL LATER TONIGHT. 


...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH GULF COAST AREA...

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM SRN AL...SRN MS AND NWWD INTO CNTRL AR. THE 00Z LITTLE ROCK
SOUNDING SHOWED MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ALONG OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. SOME BACKBUILDING NWWD INTO SW MO MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION
REMAIN LIMITED TO AOB 30 KT...SUGGESTING DOMINANT STORM MODE SHOULD
REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL. 


...UPPER MS VALLEY...

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MN WITHIN A ZONE OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD THROUGH NRN
MN. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK AND VEERED TO WLY AND IS LIMITING
CONVERGENCE SOMEWHAT. INSTABILITY IS ALSO WEAK AND GENERALLY AOB
1500 J/KG. THESE FACTORS ARE SERVING TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
IN THIS AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...MAINLY
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN MN WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS.

...WRN MT...

IT APPEARS THAT STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN
N OF THE BORDER IN CANADA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CREST
OF UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN MN WHERE STRONGER MORE
PERSISTENT STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.

...CNTRL AND SRN AZ...

STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SE AZ MAY CONTINUE
WWD INT THE LOWER VALLEYS ACROSS SRN AZ. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 07/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.