[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151246
SWODY1
SPC AC 151245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
HVR 45 NE LWT 35 E BIL 15 W COD 15 ESE MQM 35 SSW MSO 60 NE 63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
IWD 20 SSE CWA 35 WSW LNR 30 S FOD 30 ENE SZL 15 W JBR 10 NW LIT 50
WNW FYV SLN 30 N LAA 30 ENE DEN 35 E CYS 25 WSW VTN 25 E BIS 40 N
MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
HUM 30 SSW HEZ 30 SE GLH 30 E MEI 35 S CSG 40 SSW ABY 10 WNW AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 50 S SAT 45
W HOU 30 WNW BPT 30 N GGG 25 SW TUL 30 ESE GAG 50 SW CAO 30 NE 4CR
50 WNW CNM 55 NNW MRF 80 SW P07 ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 30
NNW DRA 55 WSW ELY 40 E OWY 75 WSW 27U GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... ANJ
20 ENE MKE 40 NE UIN 40 WNW STL 30 NNW DYR 40 S MSL 30 S ATL 35 E
AGS 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE PVD 20 ENE POU 35 NNE CXY 20 NNE PIT
45 WSW ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS TO
THE UPPER MS VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY INTO
THE SERN STATES...

...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY...
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S VCNTY NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE OZARKS NWWD INTO THE MO VLY TODAY AND AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND ERN DAKS. 
STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST VCNTY THE MO RVR SWWD WHERE
MLCAPES WILL REACH 3500 J/KG.  MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED
FARTHER NE INTO THE ERN DAKS AND MN.

ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS OVER ERN SD AT DAYBREAK WERE BEING DRIVEN BY
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATING
SEWD.  THEY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS MORNING...BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN AND COULD FOCUS SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE MID/LWR MO RVR VLY.  WEAK SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD
TORNADO.  UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A POSSIBLE MCS OR TWO MAY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AND TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OZARKS WITH POSSIBLE
HIGH WINDS.

UPSTREAM...ANOTHER POTENT IMPULSE VCNTY WINNIPEG SWWD TO SERN SASK
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD INTO NRN MN/ERN DAKS TODAY.  TSTMS ARE
ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY
AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND ERN DAKS.  THESE TSTMS
WILL LIKELY BE MORE PULSE-TYPE TSTMS THAN FARTHER SW...BUT STILL
LIKELY GIVE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

COMBO OF DIURNAL UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCED BY WEAK FRONTAL SURGE WILL
ADVECT/MAINTAIN 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS TO THE DIVIDE IN CO/WY. 
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WEAK VORT MAXIMA ROTATE
ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES.  FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS
GIVEN INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT.  BUT...ISOLD DAMAGING
WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

...WRN/CNTRL MT...
OUTFLOW FROM A SASK SURFACE HIGH WILL ENHANCED MOIST ELY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO THE DIVIDE IN WRN/CNTRL MT TODAY.  ALL NIGHT CONVECTION
ATTESTS TO THE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON MLCAPES
WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG.  TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ON THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  LONG HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.

...LOWER MS VLY-SERN STATES...
A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 6.8 DEGREE C/KM ON 12Z
LZK/TLH/JAN/BHM SOUNDINGS/ IS WRAPPING EWD ALONG BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS...AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3500-4000 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM CNTRL MS TO SWRN GA.  TSTMS ARE
APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND WILL LIKELY POSE A HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

..RACY/GUYER.. 07/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.