[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150559
SWODY1
SPC AC 150557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
HVR 45 NE LWT 35 E BIL 15 W COD 15 ESE MQM 35 SSW MSO 60 NE 63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
IWD 20 SSE CWA 35 WSW LNR 30 S FOD 30 ENE SZL 15 W JBR 10 NW LIT 50
WNW FYV SLN 30 N LAA 30 ENE DEN 35 E CYS 25 WSW VTN 45 SSE JMS 65 N
GFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
HUM 30 SSW HEZ 30 SE GLH 30 E MEI 35 S CSG 40 SSW ABY 10 WNW AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG
30 NNW DRA 55 WSW ELY 40 E OWY 75 WSW 27U GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT...
60 NNW GGW 20 SW SDY 45 ESE DIK 35 NNE JMS 80 NE DVL ...CONT... ANJ
20 ENE MKE 40 NE UIN 40 WNW STL 30 NNW DYR 40 S MSL 30 S ATL 35 E
AGS 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE PVD 20 ENE POU 35 NNE CXY 20 NNE PIT
45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 25 NE GLS 30 N GGG 25 SW TUL 30 ESE GAG 50 SW
CAO 30 NE 4CR 50 WNW CNM 55 NNW MRF 80 SW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS THROUGH MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN
U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SEWD AND INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY...AND WILL
RESULT IN A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD INTO THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM THE SERN STATES NWWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND
FROM SRN GA-SRN MS NWWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN MN SWWD THROUGH ERN SD AND
CNTRL/WRN NEB.

...CNTRL PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS...

AN AXIS OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY
FROM ERN KS NWWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FARTHER NE FROM ERN SD INTO MN SE
OF THE COLD FRONT. STORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY OR ALONG THE SEWD
MOVING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
IT DEVELOPS SEWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.  SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST ABOVE NWLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF ERN NEB AND ERN KS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE BACKED TO SLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY BE
THE INITIAL THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
FROM CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO NE KS. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR
MORE MCSS AND MOVE SEWD ON COOL SIDE OF NW/SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY 
THROUGH ERN KS/WRN MO OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY
DAMAGING WIND.

OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY
WITHIN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE REGIME AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING.


...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES...

A RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS...LA...THROUGH SRN AL...NW FL.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OR ALONG
OUTFLOW LEFT OVER FROM WEDNESDAYS STORMS. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MLCAPE TO 3500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
SEWD WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.


...WRN MT...

ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN MT IN WAKE OF FRONT...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S PERSISTING BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THOUGH THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL FORCING AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ENHANCE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE REGIME AND SPREAD EWD
DURING THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL/GUYER.. 07/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.