[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151603
SWODY1
SPC AC 151601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
HVR 45 NE LWT 35 E BIL 15 W COD 15 ESE MQM 35 SSW MSO 60 NE 63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
IWD 10 NNW EAU 25 SSE RST 30 S FOD 30 ENE SZL 15 W JBR 10 NW LIT 50
WNW FYV SLN 30 N LAA 30 ENE DEN 35 E CYS 25 WSW VTN 35 WNW ATY 15
ENE RRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
HUM 30 NNE BTR 45 W JAN 25 WNW MEI 15 N TOI 35 NW ABY 30 NNE AYS 25
NNE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB 55 N PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 40 NW NIR 50 SSW
CLL 30 WNW LFK 30 N GGG 50 SW TUL 30 ESE GAG 25 WSW DHT 10 SW CVS 30
WNW HOB 35 SSW INK 80 SW P07 ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 40 WNW
DRA 65 ESE U31 15 NNE OWY 65 S S80 GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... ANJ 30
WSW MKG 30 NNW SPI 15 NNW ALN 40 SSE PAH 40 S MSL 30 S ATL 35 E AGS
15 SE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON ABE 30 NNE LBE 20
SSW FKL 40 WSW ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW GGW 15 WSW MLS
35 ENE 4BQ 45 NW PHP 40 WSW ABR 50 N DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND WRN MT...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE RIDGE IN THE W AND TROUGH ALONG E COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NWLY
FLOW REGIME FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SERN U.S.  SURFACE/UPPER
LOW SERN ONTARIO MOVES SLOWLY DOWN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWD THRU NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 
THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NRN GA TO NRN AR. 
WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER MO MOVES EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT DROPS SEWD FROM THE ND/SD BORDER INTO NEB
BY TONIGHT.

A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES S OF FRONTAL ZONE CENTRAL
AND ERN GULF STATES WITH A RIBBON OF THIS AIRMASS EXTENDING NWD THRU
THE PLAINS W OF MO SURFACE HIGH AS FAR N AS THE ND/SD LOW AND FRONT.


...CENTRAL U.S...
WITH THE 40-50 KT NWLY FLOW AT 500 MB COUPLED WITH THE SLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW W OF SURFACE HIGH AND TO S OF DAKOTA FRONT AND
LOW...VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO
LOW 70S AS FAR N AS SD...A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG.  WITH
LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM OR GREATER...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD NEB.  PARAMETERS SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WHICH
WILL ENHANCE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SHEAR WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER BUT LAPSE RATES VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY HIGH.

AS IS TYPICAL IN A NWLY FLOW PATTERN...SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE
WELL AFTER DARK...PARTICULARLY IF A COLD POOL DRIVEN MCS DEVELOPS.


...MT...
MONSOON MOISTURE HAS MOVED RAPIDLY N/NEWD THRU INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
INTO SRN MT WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW AROUND AN INCH.  LAPSE
RATES OF 8-9C/KM AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER 
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH SHEAR IS
MARGINAL IN THE RIDGE AXIS WRN AND CENTRAL MT.

...CENTRAL/ERN GULF STATES/LWR MS VALLEY...
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ERN GULF STATES
TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE WHERE VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS
PRESENT.  REF MCD 1684. FURTHER W TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALSO WILL DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON AS CAP
WEAKENS.  SHEAR A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS
AREA ON THE FRINGE OF THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. 
WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WINDS
ARE LIKELY.

...AZ...
MOISTURE CONTINUES HIGH MUCH OF AZ. STRONGER HEATING TODAY WITH LACK
OF DESERT CONVECTION WED...WILL RESULT IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
PROPAGATION OFF THE MTNS INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS TODAY.  MODIFYING
MORNING SOUNDINGS FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON YIELDS
MUCAPES TO 2500 J/KG DESERT VALLEYS ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES TO 8C/KM.
 WITH 10-20 KT E/SELY STEERING FLOW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
SCENTRAL DESERTS BY THIS EVENING.  GIVEN STILL WARM 500 MB TEMPS
AROUND MINUS 7 AND FAVORABLE BUT STILL WEAK STEERING FLOW...WILL
INDICATE JUST 5 PERCENT SEVERE COVERAGE FOR DOWNBURSTS WINDS AND
HAIL ATTM.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.