[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140621
SWODY1
SPC AC 140618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
MCK BFF 25 S 81V 30 ENE MLS 25 SW DIK 35 NE BUB 30 NNW MCK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
BVE 35 ESE JAN 60 N LIT 20 ENE UNO 45 NNW CSV 25 ENE HTS 20 ENE JHW
15 ESE ELM 15 SE NEL ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 W CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MFE 20 NNW ALI
15 NW CLL 25 ENE LFK 15 SSE SHV 40 SE TXK 40 ESE PGO 25 NNW FSM 30
ENE BVO HUT 25 SSW GCK 30 E ROW 55 N MRF 40 SW P07 ...CONT... CZZ 20
ESE DAG 40 W MLF 55 SSW TWF 45 WNW SUN 45 S MSO 3TH 35 ESE EPH 35
SSW RDM 25 ENE MFR 25 NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 40 NNW
IWD 20 NW MKT 25 N FOD 30 ENE P35 20 S MVN 20 W SDF 35 NE DAY 45 W
TOL 35 SW HTL 60 WNW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
GULF COAST STATES...AND THE MIDDLE / SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE RIDGE WILL PERSIST AT MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...WITH
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EXPAND SEWD ACROSS THE ERN
STATES.  IN BETWEEN...BROAD BAND OF MODERATELY-STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL
EVOLVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD TO THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST.  BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE LOWER 48.

AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH -- INITIALLY W OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WILL MOVE EWD AND SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH TIME
ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING.  MEANWHILE...THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND THEN EXTEND NWWD AS
A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...ERN AR / TN / GULF COAST STATES / ATLANTIC COAST STATES / PA...
DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS REMNANTS OF STRONG TN VALLEY BOW
ARE NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS NRN AL / NWRN GA.  

STRONG WLY FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED...WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW E OF THE APPALACHIANS.  ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF ONGOING CONVECTION W OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY / EARLY
AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SUPPRESSED E OF THE MOUNTAINS.  BEST
FOCUS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ALONG LEE TROUGH EXPECTED
ACROSS ERN VA / THE ERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE QUESTIONS REGARDING LOCATION OF MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME HAIL.  WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 25% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS
REGION DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO LOCATION OF
LIKELY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. 
HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD WOULD
SUPPORT FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS.  HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE INSERTED IN LATER FORECASTS ASSUMING
SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER WITH TIME.

SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT ACROSS TN WWD INTO
NWRN AR DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEIGHT
FALLS / UPPER FORCING IS EVIDENT ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND FIELD EXPECTED. 
WEAK UPPER FEATURE / SECONDARY NWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY
EVENING WHICH MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.  INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH
TIME SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO
MS AND PERHAPS AL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN MT SSEWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO PARTS OF NEB
IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE / SELY UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR AND E OF
PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH A MINIMUM IN CONVECTION MAY 
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER FEATURES ROTATE CYCLONICALLY SEWD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG NERN EDGE OF UPPER HIGH CENTER.  WITH
MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THIS REGION
BENEATH 25 TO 35 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  

...AZ / ERN WRN NM...
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ BY AFTERNOON...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NM
/ ERN AZ.  

STRONGER /AROUND 25 KT/ ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE DESERT SW DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING SOUTH OF UPPER
HIGH.  THIS COMBINED WEAK WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS THAT
ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO CENTRAL
AND PERHAPS SWRN AZ THROUGH THE EVENING.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..GOSS.. 07/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.