[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140122
SWODY1
SPC AC 140120

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
JHW 30 NNE LBE 25 S UNI 10 SE 5I3 25 NW HSS 35 ENE RMG 25 W BHM 20
ESE MEM 35 SW PAH 30 E SLO 25 ESE OWB 45 SW CMH 20 SW CGX 45 ESE MKE
30 N LAN 25 WSW OSC 50 ESE OSC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
ROC 15 S PSB 15 NE PSK 50 NW AND 15 NNW MCN 35 WSW SEM 30 N JAN 15
SSE FYV 25 NW TOP 40 NNE HLC 35 ESE CYS 45 NNW 4FC 35 WNW CPR 50 N
SHR 35 N 4BQ 40 ENE VTN 45 E FOD 30 SW MSN 10 SSW MTW 55 NW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUM 20 NNE LFT
20 NE LFK 35 SSE PRX 15 SSE TUL 50 E ICT 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25
WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 30 NNE FST 20 SSE P07 ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 25
NNE DAG DRA 50 ENE U31 55 ESE OWY 40 ESE BOI 55 N 27U 75 ENE 63S
...CONT... 55 NNW ISN 10 SSW 9V9 20 S MCW 20 NW LNR 60 SSE DLH 40
NNW ELO.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI...NRN
IN...SERN IL...KY...TN...NERN MS...NRN AL...NWRN GA...OH...AND WRN
PA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ESEWD
INTO THE MID MS / OH VALLEYS EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...

...MID MS / TN / OH VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...
THREE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS -- ONE MOVING SEWD ACROSS MO...ONE MOVING
ACROSS LOWER MI...AND A WELL-ORGANIZED BOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS KY
TOWARD TN -- SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  FAVORABLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
INTENSE / COMPACT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES.

KY BOW ECHO IS MOVING AT NEAR 50 KT...AND SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS
TN INTO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT. 
VERY STRONG / WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BOW ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO...GREATER SEVERE THREAT
EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR S AS NRN AL / NWRN GA.  ALTHOUGH STORMS
MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THEY CONTINUE SWD...SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND
SWD INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF AL / GA / MS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

STORMS ACROSS LOWER MI ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
WITH TIME...AND SHOULD ALSO EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO.  MCS SHOULD ROLL
SEWD ACROSS NRN IN / OH AND INTO WRY PA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...AS STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SURGES ESEWD WITH TIME. 
VERY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE / ORGANIZED -- BUT STILL SEVERE -- MCS IS ALSO
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS MO TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
EXPECTED.

...ERN WY / SWRN SD SEWD INTO NEB...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP / MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ERN WY
INTO SWRN SD / WRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.  WITH
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NWLY WINDS AT MID-LEVELS...SUFFICIENT
SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS -- ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD-PROPAGATING
MCS.  STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 

...AZ...
MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OBSERVED ACROSS SRN AZ TODAY...WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN
HALF OF THE STATE.  THIS COMBINED WITH ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS
THAT FAIRLY VIGOROUS STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD PHX / GBN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS SRN AZ
THROUGH THE EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 07/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.