[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141256
SWODY1
SPC AC 141254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
JAX 25 W CTY ...CONT... 30 WNW BVE 30 SE JAN 20 SSW JLN 30 SSW LBF
40 WSW CDR 30 NE MLS 10 N GDV 30 NW Y22 65 W YKN 40 E VIH 50 ESE BWG
20 ENE HTS 25 SE LBE 20 ENE DUJ 15 NE IPT 35 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW SAN 15 ENE DAG
20 ENE P38 55 SSW TWF 50 ENE BOI 45 S MSO 45 NNW 3TH 35 SSW 63S 35
SSW RDM 25 ENE MFR 25 NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE
PSX 50 N HOU 35 ENE LFK 15 SSE SHV 25 SE TXK 45 N TXK 15 WSW FSM 10
ENE BVO 10 WSW HUT 25 SSW GCK 30 E ROW 55 N MRF 40 SW P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW IWD 20 NW MKT
25 N FOD 40 SW OTM 35 E MDH 50 S SDF 30 ESE DAY 30 WNW TOL 20 SW HTL
15 W ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC...SERN STATES...DEEP SOUTH...TN VLY NWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO NY...
LEADING EDGE OF TUESDAYS GREAT LAKES MCS WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN
NY AND CNTRL PA AT MID-MORNING.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE TSTMS
WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS ERN PA AND ERN NY
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  DESPITE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE REGION...IT
APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY/HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE TODAY.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS GIVEN
FAST WLY FLOW REGIME /30 KTS/...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

...DELMARVA SWD INTO THE SERN STATES...
A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE SWD
INTO THE SERN STATES TODAY.  SLIGHTLY STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO 1/DEVELOP PREFERENTIALLY ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND 2/ INTENSIFY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CURRENT MCS MOVING
SEWD TOWARD NRN GA/WRN SC.  GIVEN WNWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40+ KTS 
TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING
SYSTEMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.

...DEEP SOUTH/TN VLY NWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING ARE LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH/TN VLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE BOW ECHOES
WITH ATTENDANT HIGH WINDS/HAIL.

UPSTREAM...CONDITIONAL THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
EXIST THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER IMPULSE NOW CROSSING NEB HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING ELEVATED NOCTURNAL TSTMS OVER THE MO VLY.  AS THIS
IMPULSE MOVES SEWD...SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY INITIATE IF LOCAL
CONVERGENCE CAN BREACH THE CAP NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD
THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS/TN VLYS LATER
TODAY WITH HIGH WINDS/HAIL.

...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS FROM SERN MT INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION.  PERSISTENT SELY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 50S DEW POINTS AND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT AND LOCATION ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MODEST NW FLOW
ALOFT...ANY TSTM THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS. MAIN LIMITATION WILL BE THE ABSENCE OF UPPER SUPPORT TOPPING
THE WRN STATES RIDGE.

...SWRN DESERTS...
COMPLICATED SCENARIO EXISTS ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS TODAY.  WEAK MCV
HAS EVOLVED FROM OVERNIGHT MCS AND WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MARICOPA
COUNTY AT 12Z. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO SRN CA
TODAY. CLOUD CANOPY WILL GRADUALLY THIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN
AZ THIS MORNING.  TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE MAIN INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATING
INTO SONORA/SRN AZ LATER TODAY.  THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN INFLUX OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM
THE GULF OF CA AND WEAK MIDLEVEL WIND FLOW.  POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE VLYS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW UNSTABLE THE LOWER DESERTS
WILL BECOME OWING TO THE CLOUDS THINNING LATER IN THE
DAY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND APPROACH OF THE MCV MAY AUGMENT TSTMS
ACROSS SERN CA INTO SRN NV.  THESE TSTMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLD
DAMAGING WINDS.

..RACY/GUYER.. 07/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.