[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 132009
SWODY1
SPC AC 132008

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW
ERI 10 WNW YNG 35 NW CRW 30 E BWG 30 WSW EVV 30 NE ALN 10 SE MLI 30
ENE MMO 15 SSW MKE 40 N MSN 30 NNW OSH 10 N MBL 55 NNE MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
ROC 15 S PSB 40 W SHD 35 ESE TRI 10 ESE CHA 20 NNW MKL 20 NNW POF 15
SSE SZL 40 SW FNB 30 NE MCK 45 ESE CYS 20 SE LAR 25 NNW CPR 35 SE
SHR 40 SE 4BQ 25 S PHP 20 W YKN 40 E FOD 25 NE LSE 10 N RHI 95 NNW
CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW ISN 40 SSE MBG
20 SSW HON 20 SSE FRM 45 ENE MSP 10 SSE BRD 30 E BJI RRT ...CONT...
30 WSW GLS 50 WSW LFK 25 S TYR 40 SE PRX 45 NE TXK 15 N PBF 15 SSW
UNO 30 NNW CNU 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 30 NNE
FST 20 SSE P07 ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 25 NNE DAG DRA 55 ENE U31 60 ESE
OWY 40 ESE BOI 45 SSE BKE 20 NNE MFR 25 ENE OTH 35 WNW BLI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LRG PART OF THE GRT LKS
AND MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS...

...DELAYED BY COMPUTER PROBLEMS...

...MIDWEST/GRT LKS...
AFTN SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDING
FROM WRN UPR MI S/SW ACROSS CNTRL WI INTO NW IL/SE IA AND NW MO. 
THIS BNDRY SHOULD CONTINUE SE INTO THE OH VLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  FARTHER S...A WEAK N/S WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE/REDEVELOP EWD ACROSS IL/WRN IND.  A
SUPERCELL STORM THAT FORMED INVOF OF THIS FRONT EARLIER TODAY HAS
DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BNDRY OVER N CNTRL IL...AND THE
LATTER FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

MID LEVEL WARMING/INCREASED CAPPING ARE OVERSPREADING WRN IL
ATTM...PER 18Z DVN/ILX RAOBS AND STLT DATA.  BUT GIVEN DIURNAL
INCREASE IN CAPE...FAVORABLE BNDRY LATER ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN
IL/IND...AND CURRENT STRENGTH OF NRN IL SUPERCELL...EXPECT THAT
STORM...AND ANY OTHERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BNDRY...WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.  MEAN
WNWLY FLOW AND ORIENTATION OF SURFACE INSTABILITY FIELD SUGGEST THAT
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP SE INTO IND...WITH SOME SIMULTANEOUS
UPWIND DEVELOPMENT EXTENDING BACK W INTO CNTRL IL.  PROLONGED
DISCRETE NATURE OF STORM MODE...AND HIGH MLCAPE /AROUND 4000 J PER
KG/...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY
LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND...BEFORE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A POSSIBLE
DERECHO LATER TONIGHT.

FARTHER N...STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS.  SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT/UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DPVA AND 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY FLOW
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS/HIGH
WIND. COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND INCREASING
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/ MAY SUPPORT
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A DERECHO OVER SRN LWR MI/NRN/CNTRL IND
INTO OH LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...CNTRL PLNS...
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ IS PRESENT
TO SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL IN POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN NEB THIS EVENING /REF WW 621/.
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO BNDRY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BACK-BUILDING AS FRONT SETTLES
SLOWLY SWD LATER TODAY.

FARTHER W...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH 25-30
KT MID LEVEL WNWLY WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS OVER ERN WY/WRN NEB.  CAPPING MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT IN
THE PLAINS...BUT ACTIVITY NOW FORMING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WITH MLCAPE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND
AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.

...AZ...
A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SRN AZ...AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON S
SIDE OF GRT BASIN RIDGE.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED INSTABILITY
OVER REGION RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS /MLCAPE TO 1100 J PER KG/. 
ABSENCE OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS...POSSIBLY REFLECTING WEAK SUBSIDENCE
DOWNSTREAM FROM BIG BEND UPPER TROUGH... WILL ALLOW FOR UNIMPEDED
SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
DAY.  COUPLED WITH MODEST /15 KT/ ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW...SETUP
SHOULD ALLOW STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE RIM AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE AZ TO PROPAGATE W INTO THE LWR DESERTS.  RELATIVELY
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE OF AN OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISM SUGGEST THAT ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED.

..CORFIDI.. 07/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.