[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131628
SWODY1
SPC AC 131626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW
ERI 10 WNW YNG 30 SE UNI 15 SW LEX 40 N BWG 25 NW SLO 30 NE MLI 20
WNW MSN 30 W GRB 10 N MBL 55 NNE MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
ROC 15 S PSB 40 W SHD 35 ESE TRI 10 ESE CHA 20 NNW MKL 20 NNW POF 15
SSE SZL 40 SW FNB 30 NE MCK 45 ESE CYS 15 E LAR 25 NNW CPR 35 SE SHR
40 SE 4BQ 25 S PHP 20 W YKN 20 N FOD 25 WSW EAU 75 N IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GLS 50 WSW LFK
25 S TYR 40 SE PRX 45 NE TXK 15 N PBF 15 SSW UNO 30 NNW CNU 15 WSW
SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 25 WNW INK 15 SSW P07
...CONT... 20 E CZZ 25 NNE DAG DRA 50 SSW ELY 60 ESE OWY 40 ESE BOI
45 SSE BKE 20 NNE MFR 25 ENE OTH 35 WNW BLI ...CONT... 55 NNW ISN 35
SE MBG 15 NNE HON 40 NNW OTG 25 NE RWF 10 SSE BRD 30 E BJI RRT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OHIO VALLEY WESTWARD ACROSS MS
VALLEY TO ERN WY....

...MID WEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH THAT CROSSED SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES IS NOW
TURNING SEWD  AND WILL DRIVE AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET
ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALG WI/MN BORDER SWWD INTO NRN NEB AT 15Z.
FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E/SEWD TO BE LOCATED FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO
NRN MO THIS EVENING.

A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS IA/MO EWD INTO WRN OH VALLEY. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF GREATER THAN 8C/KM WILL RESULT IN  VERY TO EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF MDT RISK AREA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO INITIATING FIRST AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER NERN WI/UPPER MI...REF WW620...WHERE MID LEVEL COOLING
AND ASCENT AHEAD IS ONGOING.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON....THE  WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALLY ACROSS WRN WI INTO NERN IA...NRN IL. AS THE 50-60 KT
700/500MB WIND MAX DRIVES SEWD ACROSS SRN MN/NERN IA SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS  EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY EXPAND E AND SEWD ACROSS LWR
MI/IL INTO WRN OH VALLEY AS  MLCAPES CLIMB TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. STORMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE
SQUALL LINE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...TYPICAL OF A
DERECHO EVENT. IN ADDITION THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
POSES A THREAT OF SUPERCELL TORNADOES ALONG WITH BOWHEAD TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL
AFTER SUNSET INTO UPR OH VALLEY AND ACROSS OH RIVER INTO NRN
KY...GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE STRONGLY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND
WIND MAX.

...MO VALLEY WWD ACROSS NEB INTO ERN WY...

AS COLD FRONT MOVES MORE SLOWLY SWD THIS AREA...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY.  UPSLOPE ELYS WILL
ENHANCE SHEAR AND LIFT INTO ERN WY/WRN NEB FOR STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING INTO HIGH PLAINS.

PRIMARY THREAT THESE AREAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST
WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME.

...AZ...
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS OCCURRING OVER SWRN U.S. WITH
THE LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER CO PROVIDING DEEP SELYS.  SHEAR PROFILES
WILL REMAIN WEAK AND 500MB TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARM FOR MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.  STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT SOME PROPAGATION FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADJACENT
DESERT VALLEYS.  WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD LIMIT WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD REACH INTO TUS/PHX AREAS
BY THIS EVENING.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 07/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.