[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121653
SWODY1
SPC AC 121651

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
CMX 15 SW RHI 30 ENE ALO 25 ENE DSM 20 NE LNK 10 SW BBW 25 SW VTN 50
SE MBG 20 NNE ABR 25 W FAR 20 SSW TVF 15 WNW RRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
CSG 25 W AUO 25 E TCL 10 WSW HSV 10 NNW CHA 65 NNW AHN 20 E AHN 20
SE MCN 20 SE CSG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUL 25 WNW AUG
25 W CON 15 NE BDL 20 SW GON.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MTW 20 N MSN
30 S LNR 35 SE DBQ 20 ESE MLI 30 SSW MMO 40 NE LAF 25 NNE FWA 10 NE
GRR 30 SSW MTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 55 NE TRM 30
E LAS 15 SE MLF 40 NNE CNY 15 ESE CAG 15 NE CPR 15 ESE WRL 35 N WRL
35 NW SHR 35 W 4BQ 55 N REJ 40 ENE DIK 55 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70
S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW DRT 25 ENE AUS
45 SSE GGG 35 SSW ELD 60 S HRO 25 SSW JLN 30 WSW CNK 30 SSE MCK 40
ENE LIC 25 SW LHX 40 SE 4CR 55 NNW GDP 35 SE GDP 35 SW FST 25 SW
P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND GA...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION...
VIGOROUS UPPER VORTICITY CENTER IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
SRN SASK AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE
SEWD TONIGHT TOWARD NRN MN IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM
RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AS
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
MOVES ESEWD ACROSS ND INTO NRN MN.

MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NERN SD ALONG AND
NORTH OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG HEATING OCCURRING FROM SRN SD INTO SRN MN. 
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 65-70F RANGE COUPLED
WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 2000-3000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEVELOP SWWD ALONG BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL SD...WITH DEVELOPMENT SWD
INTO NEB BECOMING LIMITED BY INCREASING CAP WITH SWD EXTENT.

ACTIVITY MAY FORM INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE ACROSS ERN SD AND WRN MN
SWD INTO NRN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING EWD/SEWD
ACROSS SRN MN INTO PARTS OF IA TONIGHT.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN CONTINUING EWD INTO NWRN WI TONIGHT IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER VORTICITY MAX AND JET STREAK...HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CONVECTION.

...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO AL/GA...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN REGION OF HIGH DEW POINTS AND
STRONG HEATING.  WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...BUT
INCREASING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER
INDICATE THREAT BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...AZ...
SOUNDINGS AT PHX AND TUS EXHIBIT WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V
CHARACTERISTICS WITH VERY MOIST MID LEVEL CONDITIONS.  THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING MICROBURSTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 07/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.