[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 122004
SWODY1
SPC AC 122002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 15
SW RHI CID 40 WSW DSM BBW MHN PHP MBG 45 NNW ABR 45 E FAR 30 ESE BJI
45 W INL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
CSG 20 N 0A8 20 NW MSL 45 S CKV 45 NNW CSV 15 NE HSS GSP 25 ENE MCN
20 SE CSG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 30 S HEZ 55
S GLH 45 ENE PBF 25 WNW UNO SZL 40 NW CNK MCK LAA 45 S 4CR 35 NW GDP
INK SJT 15 SW PSX ...CONT... 20 E CZZ LAS EVW 20 NNW RKS 45 S CPR 55
SSE DGW 40 W SNY SNY 10 NNW AIA CDR RAP 20 WNW Y22 BIS JMS 35 SE TVF
20 W TVF DVL 55 N ISN ...CONT... 40 SSE HUL 25 WNW AUG 25 W CON 15
NE BDL 20 SW GON.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MBL 35 S MTW 35
ESE JVL MMO 15 NW CMI HUF DAY 25 SSW TOL LAN 35 SE MBL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70
S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE AL/TN/GA REGION...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NERN SD...NORTH OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT...WHILE OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS
HAVE FORMED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IN S CENTRAL SD. AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY
UNSTABLE/MLCAPES TO NEAR 3500 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60 KT IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS ARE
ABLE TO INGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER SD UNTIL CAPPING INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN AND STORMS BECOME
SURFACE BASED...LIKELY SOMETIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS
BECOME SURFACE BASED...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WNWLY FLOW
ALOFT...STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM
WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING A GREATER THREAT AS SYSTEM HEADS SEWD INTO
PORTIONS OF SRN MN/NWRN IA TONIGHT.

AIR MASS IS ALSO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED ACROSS NEB...BUT
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY FROM THE STORMS IN SRN SD SWD
INTO NRN NEB. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER ACROSS NEB THAN IN
SD...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 30 TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.

THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN AND NWRN MN...BUT
OTHER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COLD FRONT IN NWRN MN. DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY...THE  SHEAR WOULD
STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

...AL/GA/TN AREA...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER/MID 70S. WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
...BUT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF SEWD MOVING CONVECTION WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

...AZ...
12Z AND 18Z SOUNDINGS AT PHX AND TUS HAD INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS
FROM THE SURFACE TO 650 MB...OVERLAYED WITH MOISTURE FROM 650 TO
300/200 MB. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN EAST CENTRAL AZ/SWRN NM. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
WEAK...SOME COLD POOLING WITH STORMS SUGGESTS A LOCALIZED THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF SLOW MOVING STORM COMPLEX AS
THEY MOVE WWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..IMY.. 07/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.