[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121231
SWODY1
SPC AC 121228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
CMX 15 SW RHI 30 ENE ALO 25 ENE DSM 20 NE LNK 10 SW BBW 25 SW VTN 15
WSW MBG 50 SE BIS 45 WNW FAR 20 SSW TVF 10 ESE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW 4OM 35 NE DLS
20 E MHS 35 W MHS 40 ENE CEC 35 E EUG 45 SE OLM 45 NE SEA 25 NE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE YUM 15 E IGM 20
SW MLF 25 WNW PUC 25 WSW VEL 20 WNW CAG 30 NNE RWL 45 SE WRL 15 SE
COD 40 WNW COD 25 NW BIL 40 W 4BQ 40 ENE 4BQ 25 WSW DIK 65 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW MFE 45 S SAT
30 S AUS 25 W LFK 45 SW MLU 40 SSW PBF 15 SSW PGO JLN 30 WSW ICT 20
ESE EHA 20 WSW CAO 45 ESE LVS 30 NNW ROW CNM 40 WNW FST 25 SSE FST
20 SSW P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W EPM 15 NE AUG 10
S EEN 20 E BAF 15 N BID.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HTL 25 WNW MBL
25 SW MTW 15 WSW JVL 25 W PIA 15 ESE DEC 20 WSW IND 35 NW DAY 25 SSE
JXN 35 SW HTL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY...

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO NERN NEBRASKA...

REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS HAVE PROGRESSED INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN
MN AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO
WRN ND.  DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS
SPEED MAX BEGINS TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED WLY WARM ADVECTION FEED AT
MID LEVELS INTO BACK SIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN TO SOME DEGREE THE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ESEWD INTO MN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.  WITH
TIME...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENHANCE THE ABILITY FOR UPDRAFTS TO BECOME ROOTED IN MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER.  WHEN THIS OCCURS...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE
WITHIN DEEP LAYER FLOW REGIME MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT STORM
ROTATION AND EVENTUAL MCS ORGANIZATION.  CURRENT THINKING IS LEADING
EDGE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO RENEW ITSELF AS IT
APPROACHES MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN MN/WI. 
HOWEVER...MORE ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD EMERGE AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY
 BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SD WITH SWWD DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY INTO NERN NEB.  SEWD PROPAGATION AND UPWARD GENERATING
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SUGGEST AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SRN
MN/NWRN IA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER EARLY CONVECTION MAY PROVE MORE
EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 07/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.