[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120552
SWODY1
SPC AC 120550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
CMX 20 ENE MSN 30 ENE BRL 25 ESE P35 10 N FNB 10 SSE LNK 10 W GRI 25
W MCK 45 ENE SNY 15 SSW 9V9 15 S FAR 45 WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 30 WNW GBN
25 S PRC 35 ENE IGM 30 SSE BCE 20 SSW U28 25 NW CAG 35 ENE RWL 45
SSE WRL 35 WSW WRL 30 S WEY 15 S BTM 45 W 3HT 60 ESE MLS 60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W EPM 15 NE AUG 20
NNW PSM 15 NE ORH 15 N BID.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW 4OM 30 SE YKM
50 NNE BKE 45 ENE BKE 10 W BKE 60 NNW BNO 45 SSE RDM 35 WNW MHS 25 E
4BK 35 NE OTH 50 N ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MFE 50 SSE SAT
15 SSE AUS 20 W LFK 40 SW MLU 40 SSW PBF 15 SSW PGO JLN 30 WSW ICT
25 ESE EHA 10 ENE CVS 25 WNW CNM ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO THE WRN UPPER LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY AND NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
MEANWHILE...ANTICYCLONIC ARC OF FASTER FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM
CA NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES.  MID-LEVEL LOW / SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD AROUND
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK THIS PERIOD...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FEATURE FORECAST TO BE SURFACE TROUGH --
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- WHICH IS EXPECTED TO 
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST...
SEVERE MCS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ND WILL CONTINUE EWD...AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN MN EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WHILE
OTHER STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SD.  ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE DAY 1 / EARLY IN THE DAY 2
PERIOD...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS NRN MN AND PERHAPS NWRN WI
SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD /INCLUDING 40 TO 50 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW/ EXPECTED OVER
THIS REGION...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE STORMS MOVE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR / INTO ONTARIO.

FURTHER S INTO ERN SD / THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OF
LARGELY UNDISTURBED AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 3000 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE.  EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG
EWD-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH -- OR INVOF OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER N. 

WITH 35 TO 45 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO EXTEND SWD INTO THIS
REGION...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. 
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH STORMS
SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS IA THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT.

...NEB SWWD INTO NERN CO...
ALTHOUGH CAP SHOULD BE STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION...ISOLATED STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  ALTHOUGH SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION /MID-LEVEL
FLOW 15 TO 25 KT/...MULTICELL OR WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


...CAROLINAS AND VICINITY...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS
PERIOD AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...WEAK WIND FIELD AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY DUE TO CONVECTION / CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS
REGION SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER
STORM CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THREAT APPEARS ATTM TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 07/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.