[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120102
SWODY1
SPC AC 120100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
RRT 50 SW BJI 30 N ATY 40 WNW VTN 40 WNW CDR 20 SW 81V 10 N 4BQ 30
NNE SHR 45 SSW BIL 15 N 3HT 70 SW GGW 60 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E ELO 30 SSE RWF
40 WSW YKN 30 ESE BFF 50 WNW BFF 50 NNE DGW 25 SE SHR 40 SW MQM 20
NE 27U 20 NNE LWT 70 ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 30 NNW JCT
45 SW PRX 15 SE PGO 15 NNW SGF 35 E ICT 35 NNE GAG 45 NE AMA 30 S
HOB 60 S MRF ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 55 ENE BLH 45 ESE IGM 35 ENE GCN
30 ESE ALS 15 NNW COS 35 NNW GLD 45 NE HLC 15 WSW BIE 20 ESE LWD 35
ENE OTM 15 W DBQ 20 SE RST 25 NNE EAU 35 SW CMX 75 NE MQT ...CONT...
45 NW ROC 25 E BGM 15 E NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS...

...ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS...
MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED ACROSS ERN MT AND
INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF COMPACT / ENERGETIC
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / LOW AND ASSOCIATED 50-PLUS KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK.  AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / SRN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...EXPECT SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS TO
DEVELOP / SPREAD EWD FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. GREATEST
THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS ERN MT / WRN AND CENTRAL ND...WHERE
ONGOING STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  IN THE MEAN
TIME...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL
WIND DAMAGE WILL PERSIST -- LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / HIGH LCLS ACROSS ERN MT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THREAT SHOULD INCREASE
SOMEWHAT INTO WRN ND WHERE GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION IN
MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN
A ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG SRN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN UPPER LAKES.  

MODERATE /AOB 30 KT/ LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A LOCAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL -- PARTICULARLY WHERE
SOMEWHAT-MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE BANDS OF STORMS / COLD POOLS HAVE
DEVELOPED.  ALTHOUGH A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...OVERALL TREND IN TERMS OF BOTH STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE DOWN.

..GOSS.. 07/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.