[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111958
SWODY1
SPC AC 111956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
DBQ 35 ENE RFD 30 WNW SBN 35 E FWA 40 N LEX 35 NNE HOP 55 WNW CGI 10
SSW SZL 20 ENE TOP 20 NW FNB 20 NE OMA 15 NE DSM 25 NNE CID 35 ENE
DBQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
RRT 50 SE FAR 30 WNW ATY 35 ESE CDR 35 WSW CDR 55 S 81V 45 W GCC 45
NE COD 55 SW BIL 30 W 3HT 40 NNW LWT 55 NE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUF 15 E NEL
...CONT... 65 E MQT 10 ENE TVC 25 N MBS 70 SE OSC ...CONT... 55 WNW
LBF 45 W IML 45 WNW GLD 35 S GLD 45 SW HLC 30 NE HLC 15 WNW EAR 25
NW BBW 55 WNW LBF ...CONT... 30 WNW DRT 20 NE DAL 25 ENE MLC 35 SSE
CNU 35 E ICT 35 NNE GAG 45 NE AMA 15 WNW HOB 55 W MRF ...CONT... 40
SE YUM 50 E BLH 25 NW PRC 10 SW GCN 30 NE CEZ 20 SW DEN FCL 40 SE
RWL 30 ESE LND 40 NW RIW 20 S MQM 15 NNE 27U 30 NNW 3DU 60 N 3DU 45
SW CTB 20 NW FCA 45 NE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUL 65 NW 3B1.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...NRN PLAINS...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER
SRN ALBERTA WITH WEAKER...DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS ERN MT INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND WRN ND. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
SURFACE LOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER E-CNTRL MT WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH NOW FROM E OF HVR TO E OF LVM. STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ FROM ERN MT/WRN ND SEWD INTO
CNTRL SD. WHILE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT TO CONDITION
LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT...IT APPEARS THAT INITIATION OF DEEP...MOIST
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF
SYSTEM OVER SRN ALBERTA.

CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL LIKELY BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH LFC/LCL
HEIGHTS CURRENTLY OVER THE ANTICIPATED INITIATION REGION. STORMS
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS ALONG EXPANDING COLD POOL AS
50-60KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATES ENEWD ACROSS NRN PORTION OF
SLIGHT RISK AREA. THUS...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO EXTEND EWD
TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING.

POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY EXTEND AS FAR S
AS WRN SD WHERE SELY SURFACE WINDS HAVE ADVECTED LOWER TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THOUGH STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL
FLOW DROPS OFF WITH SRN EXTENT...MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
OF 25-30KTS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /SUPERCELLS/ WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD/S 1616 AND 1618.


...MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN AIRMASS THAT HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS OCCURRING IN ZONE OF FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EWD ACROSS ERN MN/WI AND CNTRL IA...WHILE WRN EXTENSION OVER SERN
NEB INTO SWRN IA/NWRN MO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MCV OVER
SERN NEB. 18Z DVN SOUNDING AND CURRENT VWPS/PROFILES INDICATE A
CHANNEL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
WITH 25-35KT 6KM WINDS FROM SERN NEB AS FAR E AS CNTRL IND.
THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A COUPLE
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD TEND TO
MOVE/PROPAGATE SEWD WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1617.

...FL PENINSULA...
ERN SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION HAS BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPES HAVE
INCREASED TO 2000-2500 J/KG. LOCALLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW OF
20-25KTS AROUND SERN PERIPHERY OF CNTRL GULF COAST UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE MAY PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
COLD POOL GENERATION AND ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AS STORMS MOVE
SWWD.

..MEAD.. 07/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.