[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111622
SWODY1
SPC AC 111620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
RRT 50 SE FAR 30 WNW ATY 30 NW 9V9 25 W PHP 35 W REJ 10 W 4BQ 45 NE
COD 45 ESE LVM 20 ENE LVM 20 NNE LWT 70 NW GGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE
ALO 35 ENE RFD CGX 30 N DNV 25 ENE MTO 25 NNE SLO 15 NW STL 30 SSW
IRK 20 W STJ 15 WSW BIE 30 ESE OLU 45 SE SUX 40 NNE DSM 55 NE ALO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 50 E BLH 25
NW PRC 10 SW GCN 55 WSW FMN 45 W ALS 20 SE PUB 40 ENE GLD 30 NE LBF
40 SW CDR 20 ESE CPR 40 NW RIW 20 S MQM 15 NNE 27U 30 NNW 3DU 60 N
3DU 45 SW CTB 20 NW FCA 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 65 E MQT 10 ENE TVC 25
N MBS 70 SE OSC ...CONT... BUF 15 E NEL ...CONT... 30 WNW DRT 20 NE
DAL 25 ENE MLC 35 SSE CNU 35 E ICT 35 NNE GAG 45 NE AMA 15 WNW HOB
55 W MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUL 65 NW 3B1.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE IL/IA AREA...

...NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THERMAL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW LOCATED IN SRN ALBERTA...HAS SPREAD EWD INTO WRN MT AND IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONT IS NOT WELL DEFINED ATTM...BUT SHOULD BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND AS TROUGH APPROACHES. HIGH BASED
CONVECTION HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MT IN DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW/TOUGH. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX MOVE EWD ACROSS MT...MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SHIFT EWD ONTO
THE PLAINS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS ALREADY STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN 50 KT MID LEVEL WINDS...THE STORMS WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD INTO ND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
CONVECTION BECOMES ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT...THE STRONG LINEAR
FORCING SHOULD ORGANIZE STORMS INTO A FAST MOVING LINE. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE HAIL ...WITH THE
WIND THREAT INCREASING ONCE THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM.

...IA/IL AREA...
OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROPAGATED SEWD FROM WRN WI SWWD INTO CENTRAL IA.
ALTHOUGH THE MORNING CHARTS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW IN
THIS REGION...VAD WIND PROFILES AT DSM AND SALTER PROFILER  SHOWED
WLY WINDS AT 25-30 KT WINDS FROM THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
25000 FEET. A PORTION OF THE LINE HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO FORWARD
PROPAGATE IN CENTRAL IA..THOUGH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT HAS SLOWED
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF ERN IA/NRN IL SHOULD HAVE
SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING WITH THE SREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS
INDICATING MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH EXACT
EVOLUTION OF LINE/STORMS IS STILL UNCLEAR...THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED SYSTEM FOR A
THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS/HAIL.

ANOTHER MVC WAS ALSO INDICATED ON VSBY SATELLITE NEAR LNK. OMA
MORNING SOUNDING WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500
J/KG. SOUNDING WAS WEAKLY CAPPED AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TAP INTO THIS INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A HAIL/WIND THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...FL PENINSULA...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DEEP NELY FLOW WAS EVIDENT FROM 800 TO 100
MB.  EXPECT CONVECTION OFF THE ERN PENINSULA COAST WILL REDEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVE SWWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN ON SATURDAY....THINK HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED
FOR A SLIGHT RISK.

..IMY.. 07/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.