[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111241
SWODY1
SPC AC 111239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
RRT 30 E FAR 30 WNW ATY 30 NW 9V9 25 W PHP 35 W REJ 10 W 4BQ 45 NE
COD 45 ESE LVM 20 ENE LVM 20 NNE LWT 70 NW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 50 E BLH 20
SE PRC 30 ENE INW 55 SSW 4BL 35 SW GJT 45 W CAG 35 E RWL 40 ESE RIW
25 NNE BPI 20 N TWF 50 SSW S80 25 N MSO 30 S FCA 30 NNW 63S
...CONT... 35 NNW ANJ 65 NE ESC 50 ESE ESC 15 ENE TVC 15 NE MBS 85
NE MTC ...CONT... 15 WNW ART 25 ESE UCA 40 NW EWR 15 E NEL
...CONT... 35 NW DRT 35 E SJT 45 SE SPS 40 SE OKC 15 NNE OKC 25 NE
CDS 40 SSW LBB 20 SSE INK 40 WSW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE AUG 25 NW BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS...

...NRN PLAINS...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...LIFTING NEWD
TOWARD ALBERTA/NWRN MT IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS
FEATURE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN FUTURE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON.

12Z SOUNDING FROM TFX INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WITH 45KT OBSERVED AT 500MB AND STRONGER FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS. 
THIS REFLECTS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER SPEED MAX THAT WILL
APPROACH WRN ND BY EARLY EVENING.  STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MT TODAY IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL CLOUDINESS. 
IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
NWRN-SWRN MT THEN SPREAD EWD ONTO THE PLAINS WHERE ELY COMPONENT TO
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE INFLOW/SHEAR PROFILES FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT BY LATE
AFTERNOON WILL FORCE A SHARPENING COLD FRONT INTO WRN ND WHERE
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR
N-S MCS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SLY LLJ INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS.  ALTHOUGH INITIAL CONVECTION MAY PROVE DISCRETE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...AN EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS SUGGESTS
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BY EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ND.  OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE OBSERVED WITH ANY SUPERCELLS EXPOSED TO
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

...MID MS VALLEY...

OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROPAGATED SEWD INTO SRN MN/NWRN IA AS WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  DEEP LAYER FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
TROUGH PASSAGE FROM NERN NEB INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. OF SOME
CONCERN IS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND THE
PROSPECTS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX INDICATE MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 6C/KM...WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION.  GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...THE PROBABILITY
FOR ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LOW AS DOES THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 07/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.