[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101952
SWODY1
SPC AC 101950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
ELO 25 N STC 15 N SPW 45 ENE OMA 45 NNE FNB 30 WSW FNB 25 ENE CNK 55
SSW HSI MCK 35 W IML BFF 55 NW CDR 15 NW 81V 15 ENE SHR 15 N COD 55
ENE SUN 60 SW 27U 35 S FCA 55 WNW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BOS 25 SSE RUT
40 N ART ...CONT... 55 NNW 3B1 30 NW EPM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW ERI 20 ENE AOO
20 E SBY ...CONT... 30 NW MQT 30 SW LSE 20 N ALO 20 NW CID 30 S DBQ
30 SW CGX MTC ...CONT... 75 S GBN 25 SW PHX 60 SW PRC 55 SSE IGM IGM
60 ESE SGU 20 SW VEL 40 ENE RKS 15 S LND 30 SE JAC 35 SE SUN 50 WNW
SUN 35 SE GEG 45 NE EPH 25 E OLM 20 NW HQM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 35 NE ABI
40 ESE END 35 N END 45 NE GAG 25 SSE MAF 75 SW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

...NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ONE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS SWD
INTO THE NEB PNHDL/ERN CO AND THE OTHER ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF
PACIFIC NW UPPER LOW INTO ID/WRN MT. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER SHORTWAVE TROUGH /PER 18Z
MESOANALYSIS/ FROM SERN MT INTO N-CNTRL SD WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OR WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SEWD ACROSS
ERN SD INTO NRN MO. CONCENTRATED REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER
S-CNTRL ND/N-CNTRL SD SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OF THE MO RIVER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

18Z BIS SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE...HOWEVER RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM
WERE PRESENT. EWD ADVECTION OF THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME ATOP
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS IS ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH A WEAKENING CAP.
THUS...ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS
THEY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER INTO A MORE THERMODYNAMICALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVER ND...INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTING
ON THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT.

BOTH FARGO/GRAND FORKS VWP AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF 30-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
AXIS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE AND
AS THEY MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER LCL/LFC / HIGHER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT E OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S TONIGHT WITH A MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS
CNTRL/ERN NEB.

FARTHER W...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ID PNHDL HAS MAINTAINED ELY FEED
OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S/ ACROSS MUCH OF MT. THIS MOISTURE WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF WRN MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS /POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS/ WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFER TO MCD/S 1593 AND
1595.

...OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITHIN MOIST MID-LEVEL PLUME /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
AROUND NRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH. STRONGEST ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT / CURRENTLY FROM NRN MO EWD
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND/OH / AS WELL AS ALONG NE-SW COASTAL
FRONT SITUATED OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. THOUGH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN N OF THESE AREAS...PRESENCE OF MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRIMARILY STRONG WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFER TO MCD/S 1591 AND
1592.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED ALONG ERN SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY ENHANCED NELY FLOW AROUND
SRN PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH MAY HELP SUSTAIN ONGOING
STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SPREADING WWD ACROSS
THE PENINSULA.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFER TO MCD 1594.

..MEAD.. 07/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.