[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110100
SWODY1
SPC AC 110058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
ELO 25 S ELO 30 NE RWF 20 ENE SPW 45 SE OMA 30 WNW EMP 45 S RSL 50
SSW HLC 40 NW GLD BFF 55 NW CDR 15 NW 81V 40 NE BIL 45 E HLN 40 SSW
3DU 60 ENE S80 35 ESE 3TH 45 NE CTB 65 ENE HVR 25 WNW ISN 25 SW DVL
70 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BOS 35 W ALB
25 NNW ART ...CONT... 40 NNW BML BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 40 SSW PRC
15 N FLG 60 NW GUP 45 WSW FMN 45 SSW MTJ 20 NW CAG 35 S DGW 45 SW
GCC 30 NNE BYI 50 WNW SUN 35 SE GEG 45 NE EPH 25 E OLM 20 NW HQM
...CONT... 30 NW MQT 25 SW LSE 40 E ALO 30 ENE MLI 50 NW LAF 35 NNW
CMH 20 WNW YNG 30 ENE LBE 10 S WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW DRT 55 SSE BWD
20 SSW DUA 25 NNW MKO 30 SSE CNU 25 NW PNC 25 NNE CSM 35 S MAF 85
SSE MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO THE NRN / CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATELY- TO STRONGLY-UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRIVE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT.  GREATEST
THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS NEWD INTO NRN MN...WHERE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH DEPARTING JET IS OBSERVED.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELL / SUPERCELL STORMS...ALONG
WITH THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF STRONG / ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB INTO NWRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL KS WHERE
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.  HOWEVER...WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THIS REGION -- AS WELL AS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS --
SUGGESTS THAT THREAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. 

...SRN APPALACHIANS / CAROLINAS...
SLOWLY WEAKENING CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION
ATTM...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.  IN THE MEAN TIME...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY
SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN WEAKLY-ORGANIZED LINE MOVING
SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NC.

...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT...
MARGINALLY- TO MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WRN MT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING PAC NW
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KT COMBINED WITH ELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE /
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
 SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 07/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.