[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101613
SWODY1
SPC AC 101611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
ELO 25 N STC 15 N SPW 45 ENE OMA 45 NNE FNB 30 WSW FNB 25 ENE CNK 55
SSW HSI MCK 35 W IML 20 S BFF 55 NW CDR 10 NNW 81V 20 N SHR 50 SW
BIL BTM 20 E MSO 35 S FCA 55 WNW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW 3B1 30 NW EPM
...CONT... 25 ESE BOS 25 SSE RUT 40 N ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MQT 30 SW LSE
20 N ALO 20 NW CID 30 S DBQ 30 SW CGX MTC ...CONT... 35 WSW ERI 20
ENE AOO 20 E SBY ...CONT... 75 S GBN 25 SW PHX 60 SW PRC 55 SSE IGM
IGM 60 ESE SGU 20 SW VEL 40 ENE RKS 15 S LND 30 SE JAC 35 SE SUN 50
WNW SUN 35 SE GEG 45 NE EPH 25 E OLM 20 NW HQM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 35 NE ABI
40 ESE END 35 N END 45 NE GAG MAF 80 SSE MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND MT...

...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
ERN MT AND ANOTHER IN NRN CO...BOTH LIFTING ENEWD.  A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME SERN MT WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD
ACROSS EXTREME SRN ND/WRN IA EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE
FEATURES SHOULD PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN AIDING IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
IN THE PACIFIC NWD WILL SHIFT EWD WITH LIFT INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS MT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED EWD INTO WRN MN THIS MORNING AND
STRONG INSOLATION/HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SD/NEB
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MOISTENED WITH DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER 3KM SUGGEST THAT
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. STORM OUTFLOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO MERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH AN MCS AND A GREATER WIND
THREAT SPREADING INTO WRN MN.

...MT...
ELY SFC COMPONENT EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL ENHANCE STORM INFLOW FOR
CONVECTION THAT SPREADS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY. SLOW
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WEST OF THE DIVIDE
AS STRONG LIFT SPREADS INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER TROUGH. THE
DRIER/DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

...NRN MO...
A WEAKENING MCV WAS LOCATED OVER SERN NEB THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO NWRN MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM FRONT
LIES NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV MAY
SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS NRN MO LATER TODAY. MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WIND WITH
STORMS...BUT WEAK FLOW SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

...OH VALLEY...
DEEP WLY FLOW WITH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA ON NRN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SERN U.S.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE AREA SHOWED DEEP MOIST PROFILES...BUT WEAK LAPS RATES.
MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES PRECLUDE MORE THAN A 5% PROBABILITY
FOR SEVERE WINDS ATTM.

...VA...
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER HI IN THE SERN U.S...SHOULD MAINTAIN
OH/WV CONVECTION SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
HEATING...DEEP WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR BETWEEN 500-700 MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY
AND ONLY 10-20 KT WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB SHOULD KEEP THE
STRONGER GUSTS BELOW SEVERE WIND CRITERIA.

..IMY.. 07/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.