[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101247
SWODY1
SPC AC 101245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
HVR 30 WSW GGW 35 SSE OLF 25 ESE SDY 25 WSW MOT 75 NE MOT ...CONT...
30 E INL 25 NW HIB 20 NE STC 20 NE MKT 30 E FOD 35 WSW DSM 15 NNE
FNB 45 SSW HSI MCK 35 W IML 20 S BFF 55 NW CDR 10 NNW 81V 20 N SHR
50 SW BIL BTM 20 E MSO 35 S FCA 55 WNW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 40 ESE PHX
35 NNE PHX 55 SSE IGM 15 SSW IGM IGM 15 S PGA 35 NE U17 50 WNW GJT
45 SSE RKS 25 NNW RKS 55 S BYI 45 NW ENV 50 ESE OWY 20 SSE BOI 50 S
BKE 50 SW PDT 20 WNW LWS 45 ENE GEG 35 WSW 63S 20 W YKM 15 SSW HQM
...CONT... 35 N CMX 40 WNW IWD 25 NW EAU 15 SSW ALO 40 SE CID 15 NW
GRR 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 45 WSW ERI 20 N PSB 10 S ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW 3B1 20 S HUL
...CONT... 20 E PSM 35 ENE ALB 25 SSW ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 45 NNE JCT
35 WNW SEP 40 NNE ABI 30 ENE BGS 25 SE INK 30 SW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...LIFTING NEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN FOCUSING DOWNSTREAM FRONTAL ZONE FOR FUTURE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S F...IS RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF
SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. 12Z FRONTAL POSITION EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN ND
INTO ERN MT...BUT SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED MORE E-W ACROSS SRN ND BY
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE RECENTLY OVER ERN ND...IT APPEARS STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION AND CAP REMOVAL FOR MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL EVOLVE BENEATH
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  RESULTANT PROFILES WILL 
FAVOR SUPERCELLS EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLE WITH A MCS LIKELY
EVOLVING BY MID EVENING.  VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY BEFORE DAMAGING WINDS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE THREAT
WITH MCS AFTER DARK.

UPSTREAM...ELY COMPONENT ACROSS MT WILL ENHANCE STORM INFLOW FOR
CONVECTION THAT SPREADS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SLOWLY MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...OH VALLEY...

DEEP WLY FLOW BUT ONLY MODEST SPEEDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
ON NRN SIDE OF ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE.  OF SOME CONCERN WITHIN THIS
FLOW IS THE REMNANTS OF FRI NIGHTS MCS WHICH HAS SPREAD INTO ERN IL.
 THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS IND INTO OH AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.  12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY MOIST
PROFILES...ROUGHLY 1.75 IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY BUT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP.  LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 07/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.