[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091937
SWODY1
SPC AC 091935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DEN 20
SE LAR 45 ESE MLS 15 WNW ISN 45 ENE ISN 20 NNW P24 LAA 40 SSE LHX 20
SE PUB DEN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
ADM 15 NE SPS 10 WSW LTS 40 W CSM 35 N CSM 25 WNW OKC 35 ESE OKC 10
NNW FYV 35 SSW HRO 45 E PGO 30 NW PRX 40 SSW ADM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 25 WNW SAT 50 W
TPL 35 WSW MWL 25 WNW ABI 70 WSW SJT 30 S P07 ...CONT... 30 W YUM 30
W IGM 70 WNW P38 30 SSE NFL 35 W LOL 40 ENE 4LW 20 WNW LWS 10 SW FCA
40 NNE BIL 40 NNW MLS 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 10 NW ANJ 25 SW HTL 20
SSE DTW 15 S HLG 20 E MGW 25 E EKN 40 SSE PSK 25 SW GSO 15 NW GSB 35
NNE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW EWB 25 NNE
PBG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND AR...

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SERN WY SWD ALONG THE CO FRONT
RANGE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING CUMULUS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ALONG LEE
TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO WRN ND. CLEAR SKIES INVOF DEVELOPING STORMS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. THOUGH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
AND 25-35KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THUS SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO HIGH PLAINS REGION.

...CNTRL ROCKIES...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT NV WITH ASSOCIATED REGION OF ASCENT
SPREADING NEWD INTO SRN ID AND EWD ACROSS UT. THOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS QUITE LIMITED AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS SRN WY/NRN
CO WWD INTO NERN UT. LDS AND REGIONAL MOSAIC DATA INDICATE STORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SWRN WY WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ASCENT.
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATE STRENGTHENING
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

...OK INTO WRN AR...
MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN HALF OF OK
AND NWRN AR INTO UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE 5-15KT SLY
FLOW IN THE .5 - 1.5KM LAYER WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT. ADDITIONAL
WWD DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS CNTRL AND POSSIBLY WRN
PORTIONS OF OK WHERE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE UNSTABLE BUT ALSO MORE
CAPPED. THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLOW SYSTEM MOTION...CORRIDORS OF STRONG WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW MCV LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
NERN IA/SWRN WI WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER ERN WI INTO NERN IL. FARTHER SE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED INVOF WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL/SRN IND INTO NRN KY
WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000-3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF MCV WILL REMAIN N OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST FROM IND/SWRN MI EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS
OF OH AS WELL AS NRN KY. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS
BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1583.

..MEAD.. 07/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.