[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091633
SWODY1
SPC AC 091631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DEN 20
SE LAR 15 S 4BQ 35 NE ISN 40 W MOT 50 SSW PHP 40 SE SNY 50 SSE LHX
35 NE TAD DEN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
ADM 15 NE SPS 10 SSW LTS 20 W CSM 20 SE GAG 50 W END 20 SSE END 45
SW TUL 35 WSW MKO 25 S MLC 20 NNE DUA 20 SW ADM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW ANJ 10 SSW MBL
15 S JXN 15 S HLG 10 SSE MGW 10 E EKN 45 S PSK 35 ENE CLT 30 ENE FAY
20 N HSE ...CONT... LRD 25 WNW SAT 50 W TPL 35 WSW MWL 25 WNW ABI 70
WSW SJT 30 S P07 ...CONT... 30 W YUM 30 W IGM 70 WNW P38 30 SSE NFL
35 W LOL 40 ENE 4LW 20 WNW LWS 10 SW FCA 40 NNE BIL 40 NNW MLS 70
NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW EWB 25 NNE
PBG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WRN
OK....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS....

...OK AREA...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD/SSWWD INTO NRN
OK IN RESPONSE TO NLY MID LEVEL FLOW /W OF AN MCV OVER SW MO/...AND 
30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW.  THE LLJ ACROSS OK SHOULD WEAKEN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT ONCE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90 F S OF THE ONGOING
STORMS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BECOME SMALL AND MLCAPE WILL
APPROACH 4000 J/KG.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ONGOING STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
THE LARGE CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS.

...HIGH PLAINS...
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LACKING
TODAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AND NO CLOSE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...REGIONAL
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM
ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN ND/SE MT TO 2500 J/KG OVER ERN CO WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE SPREAD WWD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM KS.  SURFACE HEATING/MIXING WILL REDUCE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY MID AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF CO NWD TO
ERN WY.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.  OTHER CONVECTION MAY ALSO FORM FARTHER N ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM SE MT INTO WRN ND.  INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LARGE ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE THE
LARGE HAIL THREAT.

...NRN/CENTRAL IL AND INDIANA AREA...
A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS MOVING EWD OVER
CENTRAL/ERN IA TOWARD SRN WI AND NRN IL.  MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WARM
FRONT IS ORIENTED WNW-ESE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/INDIANA.  THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ALONG
AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE THE ILX 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS MLCAPE
COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND SOME SMALL HAIL.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 07/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.