[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100058
SWODY1
SPC AC 100056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
SNY 30 SE AIA 55 NE CDR 35 ESE PHP 60 SSE 9V9 GRI 35 NNE HLC 10 NNE
GLD 15 SE AKO 15 SW SNY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
DIK 40 SSE ISN 45 WNW MOT 60 NNW DVL GFK 50 SW JMS 30 SW BIS 10 NW
DIK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM SGU ELY 65
NW ELY 10 SE BAM OWY 15 SSE BKE S80 45 ESE CTB HVR 75 NW GGW
...CONT... 10 NE RRT FAR 45 ENE ATY RST 10 E MKG LAN 15 SSE DTW HLG
MRB 10 NE WAL ...CONT... LRD 25 WNW SAT 50 W TPL 40 W MWL LTS 25 NNW
CDS LBB 10 NNE INK FST 30 S P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PWM 35 NNE EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
DAKOTA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY WRN/CNTRL
NEBRASKA AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS....

A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW AREAS WHERE
 CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LIKELY WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND COULD POSE FURTHER RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEAK LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT PERSISTS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.  WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY
HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY FORCE MOIST UNSTABLE CENTRAL
PLAINS AIR MASS TO SATURATION AND LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. 
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS A CONCERN...CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AND IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO AREAS
WEST/NORTHWEST OF GRAND ISLAND THIS EVENING.  STRENGTHENING INFLOW
FROM ENVIRONMENT WITH 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT
INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL/HEAVY RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG
EVOLVING SURFACE COLD POOL.  OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMIZED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...AS MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES
HAS SHIFTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE TOPPING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SMALL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.  ON NORTHERN
FRINGE OF CAPPING PLAINS MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP WEST/SOUTHWEST OF MINOT AFB.  AS WEAK TO
MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPS NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...INSTABILITY MAY BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE DEVILS LAKE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

...OHIO VALLEY...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHERN OHIO AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.  BOUNDARY LAYER
IS VERY MOIST WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS SOUTH OF FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG /REF 10/00Z RAOB FROM ILX/.  THIS IS SUPPORTING
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL.  THOUGH
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES MAY PROVIDING ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO
MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

**FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE
THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
/SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 07/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.