[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091242
SWODY1
SPC AC 091240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
DEN 35 NE LAR 30 NE DGW 40 SW RAP 45 SE RAP 50 NW MHN 30 N IML 40 NW
GLD 20 NE LIC 20 NNE DEN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW ANJ 10 SSW MBL
15 S JXN 15 S HLG 10 SSE MGW 10 E EKN 45 S PSK 35 ENE CLT 30 ENE FAY
20 N HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW EWB 25 NNE
PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 35 SE EDW 50 N
FAT 40 S TVL 10 NW TVL 20 NW LOL 35 NW OWY 55 W BTM 20 NE BTM 30 NNE
LVM 40 NE BIL 20 NW MLS 55 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MTJ 40 NE U28 40
E U24 20 NNE P38 40 WSW SGU 50 S SGU 60 E GCN 55 W GUP 40 NNE GNT 25
SSE DRO 30 W MTJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 25 WNW SAT 35 E
SEP 15 NW ADM 20 SSW LTS 40 SSE MAF 50 SSW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

SUMMER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS THE U.S. AS STRONG MID
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NRN U.S....ON THE ORDER OF
30-90M...FORCE STRONGER FLOW INTO SRN CANADA.  RESULTANT PROSPECTS
FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
ZONES WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE ADEQUATE TO
SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS.  THE MOST LIKELY ZONE FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO
BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE SUFFICIENT
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO SPREAD ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO...ACROSS SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.
 ELY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE...MAINLY
MULTICELL HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SURVIVE
THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING RESULTS IN
WEAKENING.

...OH VALLEY...

EARLY MORNING MCS HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS
MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA ATTM.  THIS FEATURE IS WELL
ORGANIZED...BUT NOT SEVERE...AND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX INDICATE STRONG INSTABILITY IF LIFTING A
PARCEL AROUND 900MB...ROUGHLY 4000J/KG ELEVATED CAPE AT ILX.  WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY AFFECT THE ABILITY FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT TO ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE CLUSTERS.  HOWEVER...AN AXIS
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE DOWNSTREAM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.  IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS A
SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED.

..DARROW/BANACOS.. 07/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.