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ACUS01 KWNS 090558
SWODY1
SPC AC 090556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
RAP REJ 30 ESE GDV SDY 15 E ISN 50 NNE MOT 55 N GFK TVF FAR 20 ESE
ABR 30 SW 9V9 35 SSW PHP 35 NNE RAP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 25 WNW SAT 35 E
SEP 15 NW ADM 40 NNE CDS 25 E PVW 40 SSW LBB 15 SW MAF 50 SSW P07
...CONT... CZZ 35 SE EDW 50 N FAT 40 S TVL 10 NW TVL 15 ESE RNO 10 W
OWY 55 W BTM 20 NE BTM 30 NNE LVM 40 NE BIL 20 NW MLS 55 NNW ISN
...CONT... 50 WNW ANJ 10 SSW MBL 15 S JXN 15 S HLG 10 SSE MGW 10 E
EKN 45 S PSK 35 ENE CLT 30 ENE FAY 20 N HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW EWB 25 NNE
PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MTJ 40 NE U28 40
E U24 35 NNW P38 40 WSW SGU 50 S SGU 60 E GCN 55 W GUP 40 NNE GNT 25
SSE DRO 30 W MTJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS....

MODELS INDICATE CLOSED LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED GRADUALLY DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  OTHERWISE...PRIMARY BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES IS PROGGED TO BECOME
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TO THE VICINITY OF
THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.  WHILE THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE NATION
IN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME BENEATH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...70F+  SURFACE
DEW POINTS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF STATES/MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD.

...PLAINS...
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE...MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ALONG/EAST OF LEE
SURFACE TROUGH.  ON SOUTHERLY FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...SHEAR
PROFILES WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AS MEAN MIXED
LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
VICINITY OF HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 10/00Z.  ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE FORCED BY HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.  BUT...BY/SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE
WARM ADVECTION AT CREST OF MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS.  MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OTHERWISE...LOW/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONFINE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AND FORCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET MAY MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT STORMS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...PARTS OF MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT IT IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON.  WARM MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
70F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MODELS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG IS
POSSIBLE.  GIVEN FAVORABLE CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS COULD BECOME ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW FIELD IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET MIGRATING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 10/00Z.  WHILE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS WILL BE QUITE WEAK...EVOLUTION OF CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSTANTIAL COLD
POOL WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT SPREADS
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.

...NORTHEAST...
AS RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGRATES ACROSS MAINE
DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS
WILL NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY WARM...INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL IN FAVORABLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC REGIME.  MAXIMUM
HAIL SIZES WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR
CORE OF MID/UPPER LOW.

..KERR.. 07/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.