[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090115
SWODY1
SPC AC 090113

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
PIR HON 10 E FSD 30 WSW FOD 25 SE OJC 40 N JLN 10 NNW JLN 20 NNE MKO
25 SSE FSM 50 SSE HRO 45 SSW UNO 35 WSW ARG 15 ENE LIT 35 NNW TXK 30
ENE DUA 40 ENE OKC PNC HUT RSL GLD 15 NE SNY MHN VTN 10 SE PIR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL ELO 10 SSW LNR 10
W MMO UNI 15 WNW HTS 15 SE SSU DCA TTN MSV BGM 25 NW ART ...CONT...
LRD SEP 10 ENE SPS LTS 45 W CSM 20 W CDS 10 N BGS 35 ESE P07
...CONT... 35 SSE YUM 70 E BLH PRC INW GUP 40 NNW 4SL CEZ CNY P38
LAS DAG NID 30 ESE FAT 15 NNW TVL 30 NW LOL 10 WSW BAM 35 NW ENV 45
SW BPI 81V REJ DIK 65 NNW MOT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

CORRECTED FOR  HAIL PROB GRAPHIC

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS APPARENT IN LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS.  DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IS PRESENT ON SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THIS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...NORTHEAST OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU.  THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING EVOLUTION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO 30-50 KT WESTERLY AT MID-LEVELS.  

LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS EVIDENT IN THE 09/00Z
NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING IS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AND STRONG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL
MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING.  AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...UPDRAFTS MAY ACTUALLY
INTENSIFY...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES/EXPANDING COLD POOL
AND BROADER SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY TURN SOUTHWARD ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM DOWNSTREAM CLUSTER/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...WHERE WARM ADVECTION ON
NOSE OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE ENHANCED.

...NORTHEAST...
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH  BROAD BELT OF 30 TO 50
KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  FORCING IN
EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK IS MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING FROM EASTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING WITH STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING.

***FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
/SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 07/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.