[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081635
SWODY1
SPC AC 081633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
HLC 35 N IML 20 ESE AIA 55 SSW PHP 50 ESE PHP 20 S 9V9 45 WSW YKN 30
ESE OFK 10 E LNK 20 WSW BIE 50 NNE HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
BML 10 NW BAF 15 NNE ISP ...CONT... 20 SSE WAL 30 NW ORF RIC 50 SW
DCA 30 SSW CXY 10 ESE SYR 15 W MSS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW
FAR 35 WSW AXN 20 SW FOD 15 NNE LWD 30 ESE SZL 15 NNW HRO FYV 10 SW
TUL 20 NW PNC 40 NE GCK 30 ENE CYS 65 SSE 81V 45 SSE Y22 60 NW ABR
50 SSW FAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 SSE 4CR
45 ENE LVS 15 SSW PUB 30 WNW COS 30 W ASE 15 WNW P38 35 W NID 40 SE
FAT 55 S TVL 25 WSW TVL TVL 50 E TVL 45 N EVW 25 E COD 25 NW MLS 60
N GGW ...CONT... INL 35 NW HIB 50 NE MSP 40 E DBQ 15 SSW LAF 15 SE
HTS 45 WNW EKN 30 WNW ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 15 ENE BLH
40 SE PRC 50 NE SOW 45 SSE GNT 30 ENE TCS 45 W ELP.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NEB AND S CENTRAL SD
THROUGH TONIGHT....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE REGION NWD
TO UPSTATE NY THIS AFTERNOON....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD AREA FROM NE OK/SW
MO TO SD...SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA....

...NEB/SD/ND AREA...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NWD FROM NRN KS INTO S/SE
NEB...AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS ERODE FROM THE S AND ALLOW STRONG SURFACE
HEATING.  ABOVE THE SURFACE...12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND ASSOCIATED CAP OVER WRN KS/NEB AND ERN
CO...AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD
TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO
WARM INTO THE MID 90S TO ERODE THE CAP FROM BELOW AND ALLOW
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...GIVEN ONLY WEAK/SHALLOW FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY.  IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO FORM
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT...EXTREME INSTABILITY AND
STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

OTHERWISE...THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIATION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. CONVECTION OVER THIS
AREA WILL BE HIGH BASED ATOP A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND STORM
MERGERS/STRONG OUTFLOW GENERATION MAY TEND TO FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO AN MCS DESPITE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. 
STEEP LAPSE RATES/INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS...AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD
EWD/SEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS NEB.

FARTHER N...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL STEADILY DECREASE NWD
FROM NEB ACROSS SD TO ND.  WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING ACROSS NRN/ERN SD INTO ND...AND LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINTS PROBABLY WILL NOT EXCEED THE MID-UPPER 50S N
OF ABOUT I-90. DESPITE THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ND/SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM MT/WY...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND
TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

...ERN KS/NE OK/SW MO...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER
ACROSS SE KS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY ASCENT ON THE NOSE
OF A 30 KT SWLY LLJ...WHERE MUCAPE VALUES /BASED NEAR 900 MB/ ARE
NEAR 3000 J/KG.  THE LLJ SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT A SWLY TO SLY FLOW OF ROUGHLY 25 KT SHOULD STILL
PERSIST OVER OK/KS IN RESPONSE TO THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
DAKOTAS.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN WAA/MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE EXISTING
CLUSTER...AND STORMS MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW SURFACE-BASED
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE EXISTING STORMS.
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK OVER THIS AREA...SO THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHOULD
CONSIST OF PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS.

...CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO UPSTATE NY...
SURFACE ANALYSES AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A WIND SHIFT AND ATTENDANT
CLOUD BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND
NY...IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM OH
TO WRN PA/NY.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS OF 66-70 F IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION...
AND SBCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER THIS AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MODEST SBCAPE COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT MID
LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG AND NE OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 07/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.