[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 082001
SWODY1
SPC AC 081959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
WAL 30 NW ORF RIC 50 SW DCA 30 SSW CXY 10 ESE SYR 15 W MSS
...CONT... 30 NNW BML 10 NW BAF 15 NNE ISP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW
FAR 35 WSW AXN 20 SW FOD 15 NNE LWD 25 NNW TBN 65 N LIT 25 SE FSM 30
WSW MKO 20 NNE END 40 NE GCK 25 N CYS 45 NNE DGW 40 ESE REJ 60 NW
ABR 50 SSW FAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 SSE 4CR
45 ENE LVS 15 SSW PUB 30 WNW COS 30 W ASE 15 WNW P38 35 W NID 40 SE
FAT 55 S TVL 25 WSW TVL TVL 50 E TVL 45 N EVW 25 E COD 25 NW MLS 60
N GGW ...CONT... INL 35 NW HIB 50 NE MSP 40 E DBQ 15 SSW LAF 15 SE
HTS 45 WNW EKN 30 WNW ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 15 ENE BLH
40 SE PRC 50 NE SOW 45 SSE GNT 30 ENE TCS 45 W ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND
SWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO
PORTIONS OF NERN OK/NWRN AR...

...DAKOTAS/NEB...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS REGION OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN SD AND ERN MT/WRN ND. RIDGING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
MAINTAINED A STRONG CAP AND SLOWED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
ACROSS NEB /PER 18Z LBF AND OMA SOUNDINGS/...TO THE N OF SYNOPTIC
WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM LOW OVER WRN KS EWD ALONG THE NEB/KS
BORDER TO NEAR STL AS OF 18Z. THUS...INITIATION ALONG WARM FRONT
OVER CNTRL NEB HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN.

BETTER POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION OF DEEP...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
LATER TODAY APPEARS TO BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY INTO THE NEB
PNHDL. HERE...AIRMASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER SUGGESTING THAT STORMS
SHOULD INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED AND CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXCESSIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY
RAPID UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS / MCS/S WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM WRN
KS INTO SRN NEB SHOULD MAINTAIN AN INFLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO
SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM....WITH SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS
NEB/SRN SD OVERNIGHT.

ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND WARM FRONT OVER N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB MAY RESULT
IN LOCAL CAP REMOVAL...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
HERE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST.
CONSIDERABLY COOLER...MORE STABLE AIRMASS PRESENT E OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER ERN KS INTO FAR SERN NEB WILL LIMIT SPATIAL EXTENT OF
SEVERE THREAT.


...NERN OK INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR...
18Z SGF INDICATED A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER CAP THAN POINTS TO THE N
WITH RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG. THOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL PROMOTE STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY...LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE
ORGANIZING A COLD POOL FROM NE OF JLN TO SW OF BVO. LIKLIHOOD OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO PROPAGATE SWD/SEWD
AS LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT ENCOUNTERS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

...CHESAPEAKE BAY NWD INTO UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...
PLEASE REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1570 AND 1571 FOR LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.

COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS
ONGOING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND E OF LEE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN/CHESAPEAKE
BAY REGION OF ERN VA. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT TO VT SWD INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF MA/CT.

STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER.

..MEAD.. 07/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.