[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081257
SWODY1
SPC AC 081255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
HLC 35 N IML 25 NE AIA 55 SSW PHP 20 ESE PHP 25 W 9V9 60 W YKN 15 S
OFK 40 WSW LNK 45 S HSI 40 NNE HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
BML 10 NW BAF 10 NE EWR 15 N WAL 50 WSW ORF 50 SW RIC CHO 20 S AOO
SYR 15 W MSS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW
GFK 40 WSW FAR 20 SE ATY 35 W FOD 15 NNE LWD 15 NNW TBN 30 ENE HRO
FYV 10 SW TUL 20 NW PNC 40 NE GCK 25 NE AKO 30 NE DGW 20 N 4BQ 70
NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW MRF 10 SW ROW
50 E LVS 15 SSW PUB 30 WNW COS 30 W ASE 25 WSW P38 35 W NID 40 SE
FAT 55 S TVL 25 WSW TVL TVL 65 NNW BIH 45 N EVW 25 E COD 55 W MLS 60
N GGW ...CONT... INL 35 NW HIB 50 NE MSP 40 E DBQ 30 N IND 20 NW HTS
45 WNW EKN 30 WNW ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 15 ENE BLH
30 SSW PRC 30 SW SOW 35 ENE SAD 70 E DUG.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SRN
SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS...NEW ENGLAND STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND
SRN SD TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SFC WINDS WILL TURN SLY ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT NEAR 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS INTO
CNTRL NEB BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS OVER WCNTRL NEB EVIDENT ON SAT
IMAGERY WILL SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND STRONG SFC
HEATING ACROSS WRN KS AND WRN NEB. AS A RESULT...STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB BETWEEN THE
MOIST AXIS TO THE EAST AND THERMAL AXIS TO THE WEST. THE ETA AND GFS
AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION...FORECASTING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000
J/KG WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE STORM INITIATION. THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR INITIATION IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NORTH
OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS ERN ID AND WRN WY WILL PUNCH EWD INTO NRN
NEB...RAPIDLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GRAND ISLAND FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH 0-3 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY OF ABOUT 280 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
INSTABILITY...RAPID INCREASE OF MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A TORNADIC SUPERCELL THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MODERATE RISK AREA. A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH A
FEW TORNADIC STORMS...DEVELOPING QUICKLY IN SRN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NEB DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SRH VALUES OF 150 TO 300 M2/S2
SUGGEST STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF
THE SFC LOW IN THE NEB SANDHILLS AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE AS THE DOMINATE MODE MAY ALSO
OCCUR AS AN MCS DIVES SSEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN NEB...POSSIBLY
MOVING INTO KS LATE THIS EVENING. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE MCS TRACK IS
STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS
KS TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW THE MCS TO MOVE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL KS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/COASTAL PLAINS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EWD
TODAY ACROSS THE NERN US. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS NY AND PA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
EWD THROUGH THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S F ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MLCAPE VALUES TO REACH 1000 J/KG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TODAY.

MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NERN US AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. THIS WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES INTO
THE MODERATE RANGE REACHING 30 TO 35 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 07/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.