[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 072007
SWODY1
SPC AC 072005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
MOT 10 SW BIS 65 SSE Y22 35 ESE 81V 40 S SHR 30 N COD 20 WSW 3HT 35
N HVR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UMN 40
NW P28 30 W LBF MHN 35 ENE BUB 50 N SZL 30 SW JEF 15 ESE SGF UMN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
PBG ALB TTN 25 WNW SBY ECG 30 NNE EWN 25 SSE RDU 40 NNW GSO EKN PIT
ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 25 S GON
...CONT... 80 NW DVL 40 NE MBG 15 E PIR 45 SSW MHE 45 W FOD 35 SSE
OTM 40 NW CGI 10 SSW PAH 20 S OWB 40 SSE MIE 40 NNW FWA 30 NE MKG 15
SE APN ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 65 ENE SOW 35 SSE U17 10 WNW MLF 75 WNW
P38 55 ESE BIH 35 NE EDW 30 WNW PMD 20 ESE SAC 55 WNW TVL 45 S BYI
60 WNW IDA 40 NNE S80 45 ENE EPH 45 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID ATLANTIC AND
PIEDMONT REGIONS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER
MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN CONUS
AND SRN CANADA...FEATURING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER GREAT LAKES
AND OVER BC.  ERN TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY CYCLONE WHOSE CENTER WILL
DRIFT EWD ACROSS LS AND NRN LH THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED
 MID-UPPER JET MAX WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO
WRN PORTION MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 08/12Z.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT -- ANALYZED INITIALLY FROM LH ACROSS SERN INDIANA TO SRN MO --
SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AND LE...WHILE
BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FROM WRN KY ACROSS SRN MO.  WWD EXTENSION
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NERN KS...NWRN MO...AND
NEB AS WARM FRONT...EXCEPT WHERE ALTERED ON MESOBETA SCALE BY
OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION IN AND NEAR WW 587.

FRONT CONTINUES AS WAVY/STATIONARY BOUNDARY NWWD THROUGH BLACK HILLS
REGION INTO ERN MT...TO CYCLONE OVE SWRN SASK. COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED SWWD FRM SASK LOW OVER W-CENTRAL MT...AND WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  SASK CYCLONE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP/PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW OVER SRN BC THAT SHOULD
MOVE EWD ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS WA/ID/NWRN
MT...THROUGH TONIGHT.

...MID ATLANTIC/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...
FROM NC TO ERN PA REF SPC WW 586 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO.  LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE FARTHER
EWD TOWARD TIDEWATER AND ATLANTIC COAST...MOVING INTO VERY MOIST AIR
MASS WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.  FARTHER N CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AMIDST WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING...BTU ALSO WEAK CAPPING.  30-35 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER
PORTIONS NY AND CENTRAL PA SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS BEING MAIN THREAT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MO VALLEY...
INITIAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE MODE -- ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SERN NEB -- IS EVOLVING INTO SFC-BASED
SEVERE THREAT FROM THERE INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN KS.  THIS IN TURN COULD
RESULT IN SUPERCELLS...LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAILSTONES...AND DAMAGING
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  REF SPC WW 587 AND ATTENDANT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN TWO MODES...
1. SFC BASED SUPERCELL/BOW MODES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING INVOF WARM FRONT NWWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL NEB...AMIDST STRONG
VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.
2. NOCTURNAL/ELEVATED COMPLEX OF TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS
S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB AND N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL
WAA REGIME AND PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
LEADING EDGE OF PLUME OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE
SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT...CORRESPONDING CLOSELY WITH SFC
FRONTAL LOCATION AND WITH A RAPIDLY ENLARGING SWATH OF HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION.  POCKETS OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SFC MOISTURE ARE
ANALYZED ACROSS ERN MT AMIDST CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING.  EXPECT
SHEAR PROFILES TO INCREASE AS UPPER LOW APCHS...BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE WITH TIME FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND CONVECTIVE WIND/HAIL
POTENTIAL.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH THIS
EVENING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF INCREASINGLY MOIST...35-45 KT LLJ
ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE.

...MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL/ERN TX...
REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559 FOR NEAR-TERM POTENTIAL IN LOWER
MS VALLEY AREA.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL STRONG
GUSTS...MINOR DAMAGE AND MARGINAL HAIL ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION SWWD
OVER MS BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAX -- APPARENT MVC -- MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN
HILL COUNTRY.  THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL LIFT INVOF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TSTMS FOR
REMAINDER AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL...N-CENTRAL AND ERN
TX...IN ADDITION TO ACTIVITY NOW PRESENT OVER DFW AREA.  REF
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...SRN GA AND PENINSULAR FL...
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS VARIOUS
OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO INTERSECT ACROSS HIS
REGION...LOCALLY MAXIMIZING CONVERGENCE/LIFT.  PRECONVECTIVE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE UNTIL NEAR SUNSET WITH
UPPER 80S/90S F SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN 70S CONTRIBUTING TO 
2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH GREATLY
AFTER APPROXIMATELY 00Z WHEN COMBINATION OF EXPANDING/MERGED
OUTFLOWS AND WEAKENING INSOLATION RESULT IN STABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 07/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.