[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080106
SWODY1
SPC AC 080104

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
MOT BIS 35 ENE MBG 35 N 9V9 PHP RAP 20 E 4BQ MLS 50 SW GGW 30 SSW
HVR 65 ENE CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
OMA LWD 35 WSW UIN 45 ENE JEF 10 SE VIH 30 NE SGF EMP HUT 45 NNW P28
55 SSW HLC 10 NNW MCK LBF ANW OFK 15 WNW OMA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BML CON 25 S EWB
...CONT... 75 NW DVL JMS FRM CID ALN 10 SSE MDH 20 SE PAH 20 SE SDF
HTS ROA LYH CHO MRB ZZV MFD 30 NE CLE ...CONT... 50 SSW TUS SAD TCS
SAF 4SL FMN U17 U24 ELY 40 ENE TPH DRA 30 ENE NID 50 NNW NID 45 SSW
BIH 60 W RNO SVE 55 NNE SVE OWY BYI BZN HLN 3DU S06 65 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA
AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI....

CLOSED LOWS/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN PRIMARY BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT.  LEAD SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER TO
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE MORE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
08/12Z.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF FRONT...WHERE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WERE REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH ONSET
OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING NEXT FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUED
LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE
SOUTH OF FRONT TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT...ONGOING CLUSTER MAY
DIMINISH...WITH NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  WARM
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME ENHANCED ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY 08/06Z...GRADUALLY VEERING TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY
08/12Z.

GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE
ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...AND WILL SUPPORT CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR ONE OR MORE
EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.  AS
UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD TONIGHT...STRONGEST FORCING IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TO VICINITY OF DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  STRONG  LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE.  THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY  MAY FORM ABOVE
RADIATIONAL/FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH
EXIT REGION OF 90+ KT UPPER JET WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 2000
J/KG.  RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO PERSIST AS SURFACE
PRESSURE PERTURBATION DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING CLUSTER.


**FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE
THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
/SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 07/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.