[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071645
SWODY1
SPC AC 071644

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
MOT 10 SW BIS 65 SSE Y22 35 ESE 81V 40 S SHR 30 N COD 20 WSW 3HT 35
N HVR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
JLN 40 NNE ICT 35 S HLC 25 SSE MCK 15 E LBF 45 S ANW 40 WNW OFK 10 E
OMA 45 NE SZL 30 SW JEF 20 ESE SGF 25 SW JLN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
PBG 35 WNW ALB 25 NW ABE 25 WNW SBY ECG 30 NNE EWN 25 SSE RDU 25 E
GSO 20 WSW LYH 20 N SSU 25 E CRW 20 S UNI 25 NW ZZV 15 NNW CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 25 S GON
...CONT... 80 NW DVL 40 NE MBG 15 E PIR 45 SSW MHE 45 W FOD 35 SSE
OTM 40 NW CGI 15 ENE CGI 20 SSE BMG 25 N IND 30 S CGX 15 NE MKE 15
SE APN ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 65 ENE SOW 35 SSE U17 10 WNW MLF 75 WNW
P38 55 ESE BIH 35 NE EDW 30 WNW PMD 20 ESE SAC 55 WNW TVL 45 S BYI
60 WNW IDA 40 NNE S80 45 ENE EPH 45 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN MO/ERN KS/ERN
NEB....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
NWD ACROSS PA/NY....

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEAL A STRONG
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN WA/SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MT AND SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE
TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT BY LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH.  12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA BASED ON A RELATIVE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
HOWEVER...EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT...WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG.  EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN A BAND ALONG THE PRIMARY SURFACE WIND
SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL MT...AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH
TONIGHT.  DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF BOTH
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND SUPERCELLS WITH SOME
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. 

...MID ATLANTIC TO NY/PA...
A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER THE LAKE MI
VICINITY...AND WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...SMALLER SCALE
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EJECTING NEWD...THE MOST PRONOUNCED OF WHICH IS
NOW MOVING OVER SE OH. MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE OH VALLEY TO
CENTRAL NY/PA IS CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR MOIST NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...BOTH OF WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FROM NRN WV TO WRN PA WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING FOR
SBCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OH/WRN PA
IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING VORT MAX OVER SE OH...WITH MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FARTHER W FROM SE LOWER MI
TO WRN OH.  30-45 KT LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FARTHER E AND S...RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S/ FROM SE PA SWD ACROSS ERN VA TO NC WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  LOCAL VWP/S SHOW 30-40 KT
FLOW AROUND 700 MB ACROSS THIS AREA...AND CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ERN NEB...THOUGH THIS CONVECTION
IS BASED ABOVE 700 MB AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA/DESTABILIZATION.  MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...BASED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT COULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVERNIGHT.  LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ACROSS ERN NEB/ERN KS AND WRN MO
OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE S MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NEB THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS. 

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS OK HAVE NOW MOVED EWD INTO
AR.  DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH
AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL APPEARS LIMITED.  HOWEVER...WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON /SBCAPE VALUES OF
3500-4500 J/KG/...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WITH WET MICROBURSTS.

...SE GA SWD TO CENTRAL FL...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING FROM SE GA SWD INTO CENTRAL FL
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING 90 F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S.  THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TBW AND JAX SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH 7 C/KM LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -9 C. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEAK OUTFLOWS WITH THE CONVECTION NOW
OVER THE FL W COAST...AND WITHIN A CUMULUS CONGESTUS AREA ACROSS SE
GA.  THE MORE INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WIND
DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 07/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.