[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061305
SWODY1
SPC AC 061303

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
JHW 15 NE PIT 45 WNW EKN 40 NW TRI 25 SW TYS 35 WSW LUL 15 E BPT 45
SSE CLL 45 E JCT 60 SSE MAF 20 N INK 60 NNE ROW 30 W RTN 30 SW COS
30 ENE COS 40 NNE LHX 45 SSE LAA 35 NNE CSM 35 SSW TUL 15 W VIH 35
NE PIA 15 E MKG 40 ESE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW MRF 15 N GDP
45 NNE ALM 70 N INW 50 NE LAS 70 W DRA 50 NNW NID 50 N BFL 30 N MER
45 SSE RBL 50 WSW SVE 35 SE SVE 15 NW NFL 10 ENE U31 45 NNW PUC 45
WNW BFF 60 WNW CDR 20 S 81V 40 ENE SHR 40 W MQM 25 SE GEG 30 W GEG
30 E SEA 25 N SEA 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 65 N OLF 20 SW SDY 30 ENE
DIK 35 N AXN 50 NNW EAU 30 S ESC 105 ENE APN ...CONT... 20 NNE ART
15 ENE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...E TX/ARKLATEX...
A LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SEWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX THIS MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS WARM THIS MORNING
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...SOME REGENERATION WITH THE LINE MAY
OCCUR. A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE LINE POSSIBLY
REACHING EAST TX.

...W TX/NCNTRL TX...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS NW TX WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SWWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND THIS FEATURE
SHOULD GRADUALLY STALL OUT. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE MOIST AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S F
MAINLY SW OF THIS BOUNDARY. TWO AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST APPEARS TO BE IN THE MTNS OF NE
NM AND THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE SSEWD ACROSS NE NM...
POSSIBLY REACHING THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING. OTHER STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE...TRACKING SEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NW TX SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500
J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING MAY ALSO RESULT IN A FEW TORNADOES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE IN THE EVENING HOURS AS AN MCS
ORGANIZES AND MOVES ACROSS WCNTRL TX.

...OH AND TN VALLEYS...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS NE MO AND WRN
IL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AS IT TRACKS ENEWD TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...A
HAIL THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE CLUSTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IND INTO ERN OH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NRN END OF THE CLUSTER MAY ALSO
AFFECT SRN LOWER MI WITH A WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN MO
EXTENDING NEWD TO AROUND ST. LOUIS. AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TODAY
ALONG THE AXIS...NEW STORMS MAY INITIATE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 20 KT AND THIS WILL FAVOR A SEVERE MULTICELL
THREAT. CONSIDERING THE HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...A COLD POOL MAY
ORGANIZE WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXPANDING SEWD ACROSS KY AND TN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.