[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071250
SWODY1
SPC AC 071249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
FYV 35 WNW BVO 35 WSW SLN 50 SSW EAR 20 SSW BBW 20 NW BUB 40 WNW OFK
10 E OMA 45 NE SZL 30 SW JEF 20 SE SGF 40 NNW FYV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
PBG 35 WNW ALB 20 WSW ABE 30 N CHO 15 ENE BKW 20 NE HTS 25 NNW ZZV
40 NNE CLE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
MOT 10 SW BIS 65 SSE Y22 35 ESE 81V 40 S SHR 40 NE COD 35 NW BIL 60
ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 65 ENE SOW
20 ESE U17 10 WNW MLF 75 WNW P38 55 ESE BIH 35 NE EDW 30 WNW PMD 20
ESE SAC 55 WNW TVL 50 SSE BYI 35 W IDA 40 NNE S80 45 ENE EPH 45 NW
4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW DVL 40 NE MBG
15 E PIR 45 SSW MHE 35 ENE SUX 25 NNW IRK 40 NW CGI 15 ENE CGI 40 NE
EVV 15 S LAF 30 WNW MMO 20 NNE MSN 25 NNW APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 25 S GON.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND WRN OZARKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS WILL SPREAD ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE SWRN MTNS OF MT THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F CURRENTLY
EXIST IN THE LOW-ELEVATIONS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MT. TEMPS IN THE
80S F SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN STRONG UPDRAFTS.

THE GGW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH
ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE DEEP SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE BY 21Z
TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT AS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF 60 KT PUNCHES EWD
INTO MT. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 9.0 C/KM WILL RESULT IN A
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. INVERTED-V PROFILES AND LCLS ABOVE 700 MB
WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUD BASES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

...CNTRL PLAINS/WRN OZARKS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD TODAY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM WRN
NEB EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS ERN KS BY 00Z. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING...STRONG LIFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE...DEVELOPING INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AFTER DARK.

MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NW AT 30 TO 40 KT WILL EXIST ACROSS NEB AND
NE KS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIALLY STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED...BUT THEY
SHOULD BECOME MORE SFC-BASED AS THEY MOVE SEWD AND INTERACT WITH THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...A
LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIKELY EARLY GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS AN MCS GETS GOING AFTER DARK. THE
TRACK OF THE MCS WILL LIKELY PARALLEL THE MOISTURE GRADIENT TAKING
IT ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN MO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG LIFT FROM THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SFC HEATING SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED STORMS TO
INITIATE BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OH AND WV. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD EWD INTO PA AND NY. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT ILN SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. AS STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...ERN NM/W TX...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS SE NM WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. TEMPS AROUND 100 F THIS
AFTERNOON WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS SE NM AND
W TX. AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY...THE STRONGEST
CELLS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL FLOW OF
ABOUT 20 KT SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.

...NC/VA...
SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
CNTRL CAROLINAS. STRONG SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STORM INITIATION APPEARS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
20 KT. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE...THE INSTABILITY WOULD HELP STRONG
UPDRAFT FORMATION AND A BRIEF MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP
NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 07/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.