[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060548
SWODY1
SPC AC 060547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
ERI 40 N LBE 40 NNW SSU 25 SE TYS 25 W GAD 35 SW JAN ESF 50 ESE BWD
50 SE MAF 25 SW HOB 35 SSE LVS 40 SW COS 20 S FCL 35 W AKO 40 SSE
LIC 40 SE LAA 45 NNE GAG 50 S OJC 20 ESE UIN CGX 40 NE MKG 15 ESE
OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MRF 30 ESE GDP
15 SW ROW 25 W 4CR 45 SSE GNT 20 SSW GUP 75 N INW 45 NNW GCN 50 NE
LAS 30 WNW LAS 70 W DRA 35 NW NID 45 N BFL 10 ESE FAT 50 SSE RBL 40
ESE RBL 35 NNW RNO 10 WNW NFL 10 E U31 55 WSW DPG 35 N PUC 15 NE VEL
55 ESE RKS 40 WSW RWL 25 SE BPI 15 ENE IDA 27U 80 NW FCA ...CONT...
55 N GGW 20 SW SDY 15 NNE Y22 40 WSW JMS 35 N AXN 60 NNE MSP 35 SE
RHI 30 S ESC 105 ENE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ART 20 NE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES...

...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VLY...
SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD THROUGH KS IS
LIKELY TO BE LOCATED FROM SWRN MO INTO CNTRL OK BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND COULD BE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.  TSTMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD THROUGH AR...SRN MO AND PERHAPS EXTREME NERN
TX BEFORE SLOWING DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS WILL HEAT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TSTMS DURING THE DAY... HOWEVER...AND TSTMS MAY
INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY OUTFLOWS.  THIS MAY SUSTAIN
A HIGH WIND AND HAIL THREAT SEWD INTO THE MS DELTA AND NRN LA AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  

TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ARC NWWD ACROSS N TX INTO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH EXACT POSITION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. 
INCREASINGLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE WELL WWD INTO
NM AND SERN CO.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  OTHER
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO N
TX AS WELL.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED BY ELY FLOW BENEATH
NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  VERY LARGE HAIL
MAY OCCUR WITH THE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER PLAINS. 
OTHERWISE...A POTENTIAL MCS OR TWO MAY EVOLVE AND ROLL SEWD INTO
PARTS OF N TX TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

...MID MS VLY TO THE MIDWEST/OH VLY REGION...
AS SECONDARY IMPULSE DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER
MIDWEST...HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VLY.  MAIN CONFLUENCE ZONE
SHOULD SHIFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...LIKELY SITUATED
FROM SERN MO NEWD INTO IND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS ALONG/SE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2500 J/KG.  TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THIS LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  GIVEN
INCREASINGLY WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A TSTM CLUSTER TO FORWARD
PROPAGATE EWD THE LENGTH OF THE OH VLY INTO PERHAPS ERN OH/KY AREA
OVERNIGHT.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.  A MDT RISK AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF THE OH VLY IN
LATER OUTLOOKS. 

...GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER OH VLY...
AN ARC OF TSTMS NOW CROSSING THE CHICAGO AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NEWD INTO LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF CLEARING IN WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
TSTMS...OR INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING TSTMS.  GIVEN MLCAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...ORGANIZED SEVERE
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.  IN FACT...ANY TSTMS
THAT DEVELOPS VCNTY RETREATING WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO OR
TWO...MAINLY IN THE UPPER OH VLY NWWD TO ONTARIO.

..RACY/TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.