[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070542
SWODY1
SPC AC 070540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
OFK 30 N OMA 10 ESE JEF 30 NW UNO 15 ESE HRO 25 NNE MKO 45 ENE DDC
45 SW EAR 40 WNW BBW 30 ESE ANW 20 NNW OFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
MSS 30 ENE BGM 30 E CXY SSU BKW HTS ZZV 40 NNE CLE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
MOT 15 SSW BIS 45 NNE PHP 20 NNW RAP 45 S GCC 30 ESE SHR 30 SSE BIL
25 SSE LVM 20 NW 3HT 65 E HVR 65 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 65 ENE SOW
20 ESE U17 10 WNW MLF 75 WNW P38 55 ESE BIH 35 NE EDW 30 WNW PMD 20
ESE SAC 55 WNW TVL 50 SSE BYI 35 W IDA 50 NE S80 40 N EPH 40 NNE
4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW DVL 40 NE MBG
40 NNE VTN 35 E SUX 10 E CGI 40 NE EVV 15 S LAF 30 WNW MMO 20 NNE
MSN 25 NNW APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 25 S GON.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VLY
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LOW NOW OVER MN WILL ANCHOR OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...BUT MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE EWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...OH VLY AND NEW ENGLAND.  TO THE WEST...POWERFUL UPPER WAVE
VCNTY BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH ASSOCIATED 100 KT H25 JET WILL TRANSLATE
EWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...OCCLUDED LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SRN/ERN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD
ACROSS THE OH VLY REGION AND STALLING ACROSS THE OZARKS.  TAIL END
OF THE FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WRN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL SWEEP
SEWD ACROSS MT...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT AT LEAST MID-UPPER 50S
DEW POINTS INTO NERN WY AND SCNTRL-ERN MT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
THOUGH INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...MAGNITUDE OF HEIGHT
FALLS SPREADING ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND 50-60 KTS OF H5 FLOW
SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS.  TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH WINDS AND HAIL. SLY LLJ WILL
ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND SUPPORT ONE OR TWO TSTM CLUSTERS INTO
PARTS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS
OR HAIL.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY SITUATED FROM SRN NEB
ACROSS ERN KS INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WARM SECTOR
WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S DEW POINTS
BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING AS WELL AND THE CAP SHOULD EXPAND EWD WITH TIME.  SEVERAL
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WARM SECTOR SURFACE BASED
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL/ERN KS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE FOR MORE ELEVATED TSTMS CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE EVENING AS THE SLY LLJ INCREASES NORMAL TO THE FRONT. 
VERTICAL/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE BEARING LAYER WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER TSTMS.
IF MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS FORM THAN EXPECTED...A FEW TSTMS MAY
CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.  FUTURE OUTLOOKS WILL
BETTER DEFINE THE SURFACE BASED POSSIBILITIES.

...UPPER OH VLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY FOR
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS.  THE THREATS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON
INFLUENCES OF CURRENT TSTM CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.  IF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOP...STRONGER
POSSIBILITIES WILL EXIST FOR TSTM LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY TEND TO BOW
IN THE WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME.  OTHERWISE...POOR MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY KEEP THE SEVERE
THREATS MINIMAL.  LATER OUTLOOKS CAN ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

...CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HEAT CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS
ERN VA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  TSTMS SHOULD
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN OH VLY TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN. 
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS AS LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT INVERTED-V STRUCTURES.
IF THE COVERAGE APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE GREATER...FUTURE OUTLOOKS
MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PARTS OF THE REGION TO A SLGT RISK.

...ERN NM...
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS GIVEN BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD.  NONETHELESS...THE STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
TSTMS...DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN IN
THE EVENING AND PROBABLY NOT VENTURE TOO FAR EWD ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.

..RACY/BANACOS.. 07/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.