[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070100
SWODY1
SPC AC 070058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
JHW 40 SW MGW 15 NE TRI 15 WSW HSS GAD 45 NW GWO 40 N POF 10 S CGX
30 NW MBS 80 E OSC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
MAF 20 NE CNM 20 WNW ROW 40 SSW LVS 40 E LVS 10 NNE CVS 35 W CDS 20
NE FSI 25 W ADM MWL BWD 30 N SJT 35 NW MAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 15 NNW GDP
20 WNW ALM 10 SW SOW GCN 70 W DRA 40 NNW NID 50 NNE BFL 35 N MER 45
SSE RBL SVE 10 NW NFL U31 U24 45 NNW ALS 40 W COS 25 SSW LIC 55 N
CAO 30 NW CSM 25 ENE TUL 45 NNE JLN 25 SSE IRK 20 NW DBQ 20 S RST 25
NNW RST 45 NNW GRB 45 ESE ESC 105 ENE APN ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 50
WNW MRB 35 SSE PSK 20 E SPA AGS SSI ...CONT... 40 SSE GPT 45 WNW ESF
20 E JCT 45 ESE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS/TN VLYS NWD TO
THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...

...UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MS/TN VLYS...
SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WERE INSTRUMENTAL IN FOCUSING TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MS/TN/OH VLYS.  SOLID LINE OF TSTMS PROGRESSING
EWD ACROSS SRN OH...ERN KY...ERN TN AND NERN AL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS/LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE.  UNTIL THEN...DAMAGING WINDS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
ERN KY/SRN WV AND ERN TN.

FARTHER NORTH...MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW VCNTY CHICAGO WITH
CONFLUENT AXIS SWD INTO NWRN IND AND ERN IL.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS
DESTABILIZED TODAY...BUT 00 UTC DETROIT SOUNDING ONLY SHOWED MLCAPE
VALUES OF 756 J/KG.  TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND ENEWD
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH SPREAD EWD.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT A SUPERCELL...BUT THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY GIVE DAMAGING WINDS...
ESPECIALLY AS THE WIND PROFILES INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.  ISOLD
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINLY
SHIFTED INTO ONTARIO.

...AR WWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
IT APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS DOMINATED THE PORTION OF SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AR INTO OK THIS EVENING.  ISOLD
TSTMS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP AND THE 00 UTC NORMAN SOUNDING
SHOWED LITTLE CAP AND 3500 J/KG MLCAPE.  GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST
WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL/NWRN TX...ANY ORGANIZED MCS POTENTIAL IS
LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THOSE LOCATIONS.  WILL MAINTAIN A
CONDITIONAL SLIGHT ENEWD INTO EXTREME SWRN OK IN CASE TSTMS DEVELOP
FARTHER EAST ALONG THE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.  EVEN
IF THEY DO...SEVERE THREATS MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN WEAK SHEAR IN
PLACE.

OTHERWISE...A MCS IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN NM INTO AREAS VCNTY
MIDLAND NWD.  MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY WITH TIME AND GIVEN
THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY/INFLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL RESIDE ACROSS
WCNTRL TX...TSTMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE WIND.  FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...LARGE HAIL COULD
OCCUR IN SERN NM.  THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

..RACY.. 07/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.