[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060059
SWODY1
SPC AC 060057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
END 20 WNW DDC 40 SSE GLD 40 SSW MCK 20 SW EAR 30 SW BIE 40 SSE TOP
25 NW JLN 25 E BVO 25 SSE PNC 15 SSE END.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
MMO 35 S MTO 20 SW HOP 25 E MKL 30 SW JBR 35 NW FSM 20 NNE FSI 20 SW
LTS 25 NNE PVW 20 SE EHA 20 W LAA 15 NNW LHX 45 E LIC 30 WSW LBF 30
W VTN 40 NNE VTN 25 S MHE 10 SE SUX 50 ENE OMA 25 W DSM 45 NNE DSM
15 SW MCW 15 SSW RST 50 W LNR 15 SSE RFD 45 SE MMO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 25 ENE CNM
30 S TCC 35 ESE LVS 25 NW SAF 45 SSE FMN 70 S 4BL 45 NNW GCN 50 NE
LAS 30 WNW LAS 70 W DRA 35 NW NID 45 N BFL 10 ESE FAT RBL MHS SVE 30
SSE NFL 10 E U31 DPG 30 S EVW 40 N VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 WSW RWL 25 SE
BPI 15 ENE IDA 27U 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N GGW 20 SW SDY 15 NNE
Y22 40 WSW JMS 35 N AXN 60 NNE MSP 10 NW TVC 30 NNE MBS 20 ENE MTC
...CONT... 25 S CRP 40 SSE AUS TYR 25 NNW ELD HOT 35 ENE PGO MLC SPS
ABI 55 SSW SJT 40 NW DRT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SCNTRL NEB...MUCH
OF KS AND EXTREME NCNTRL/NERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY...

...CNTRL PLAINS...
SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE WITH
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS /75 MPH/ BEING REPORTED NEAR GOODLAND AROUND
0020 UTC.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS/ MESOANALYSIS
DEPICT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS KS AND NRN OK. 
GIVEN GLANCING AFFECT OF NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS...THE ORGANIZED MCS IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN
TO TURN SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 
DCAPE VALUES ARE GREATER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
UPPER SUPPORT...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINDS MAY OCCUR IN A WIDE
SWATH ACROSS KS.  SWD EXTENT OF MDT RISK IS UNCERTAIN. 18 UTC ETA
SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL DIVE SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK. 
SINCE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE MORE EWD THROUGH NEB AND
IA...FEEL THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WILL PLAN TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WIND THROUGH KS AND
NRN OK.  AS THE CASE THE PAST THREE NIGHTS...EWD EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE RISKS ARE LIKELY TO END UP A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES FARTHER
EAST THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. WILL PLAN FOR THE MCS TO BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE IN SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO BY 12 UTC.

FARTHER NORTH...NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS NWD THROUGH CNTRL
NEB AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED RECENTLY JUST AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING FACTOR HERE IS
THE AFFECT STRONG IA MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL HAVE ON THE REGION. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE KEEPING LOWER INSTABILITY NEAR THE MO RVR...BUT NLY
TO NWLY FLOW INTO THE 1007 SURFACE LOW VCNTY NERN IA IS CAUSING A
DEGREE OF SURFACE DIVERGENCE.  PRIND THAT THE STORMS WILL CONGEAL
INTO A SMALLER MCS AND MOVE SSEWD INTO SERN NEB AND NERN KS.

...UPPER MS VLY...
ARC OF TSTMS PERSIST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW
VCNTY NERN IA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN IL AND SWRN WI. STRONGER TSTMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL IL AND COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

...NERN STATES...
TSTM LINE SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM ERN NY
JUST AHEAD OF SHARP UPPER TROUGH.  THESE TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND GUST EXPECTED.

...WRN CAROLINAS...
IT APPEARS THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO
ACCELERATE INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS.  IT MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS
THROUGH MID EVENING WITH POTENTIAL ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 07/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.