[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 062013
SWODY1
SPC AC 062011

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
SLO 15 NNE DNV SBN 20 NW AZO GRR 30 WSW MBS FNT DTW FDY 35 SE DAY 30
NE LEX 25 SW LEX 40 N BWG 20 SSW OWB 30 ENE MDH 30 NNW SLO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
JHW 15 NE PIT 45 WNW EKN 40 NW TRI 25 SW TYS 10 ENE MEI JAN 40 N POE
TPL SJT HOB ROW 30 W RTN 30 SW COS 35 SSW LIC LAA CSM 40 W MKO HRO
VIH PIA 10 SE MBL 25 NNE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP VCT SAT
DRT ...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 15 NNW GDP 30 NNW ALM 10 SW SOW GCN 70 W
DRA 40 NNW NID 50 NNE BFL 35 N MER 45 SSE RBL SVE 10 NW NFL U31 U24
CAG 50 SE DGW BFF 45 NE LAA 40 S DDC ICT OJC P35 ALO MKT 10 SSE STC
65 NNE EAU 30 S ESC 105 ENE APN ...CONT... 20 NNE ART 15 ENE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW ISN 20 WNW MLS
30 ESE COD 30 W MQM 20 E S80 40 WNW GEG 15 ESE 4OM 40 N 4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MI...INDIANA...ERN IL...NRN KY...WRN OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM OH/MI SWWD TO
ARKLATEX THEN WWD TO SRN ROCKIES...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE MID-UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS CONUS.  CYCLONE ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY REGION -- WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WI AND UPPER MI THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...AS
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS MID MS VALLEY. CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED/REINFORCED SRN STREAM TROUGH -- INDICATED FROM OZARK REGION
SWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD TO MID TN...NRN MS AND
NRN LA BY 07/12Z.  VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL VORTICITY ELEMENT --
PROBABLY STRONGEST IN MIDLEVELS -- MOVING NEWD FROM NERN MO ACROSS
EXTREME SERN IA.  BEING MESOBETA SCALE...THIS FEATURE IS POORLY
RESOLVED BY MODELS BUT SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS LM AND INTO WRN LOWER
MI TONIGHT.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW OVER NRN LM IS FARTHER W THAN 12Z ETA/AVN AND
CLOSER TO NGM PROGS.  THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN-MOST
LOWER MI THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS WARM FRONT NOW
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI APCHS LH.  SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SEWD ACROSS IA/MO/OK...STALLING ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM. 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS DRAWN FROM SERN OK/SWRN AR SWWD ACROSS DFW AREA
THEN WNWWD PAST LBB INTO E-CENTRAL NM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON.

...OH VALLEY...CENTRAL/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
POTENTIAL FOR GREATEST CONCENTRATION/MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN OH VALLEY AND SRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI...WHERE AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF REMAINS OF MORNING MCS.
 COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT ALSO IS
RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION CENTRAL/SRN
LOWER MI.  MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO ATTM IS FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM NRN/CENTRAL
IL TOWARD WRN INDIANA AND SWRN LOWER MI...THEN SPREAD/MOVE EWD AND
NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER IL/ INDIANA/LOWER MI AND EVENTUALLY INTO OH. 
STRONGEST FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN N OF OH RIVER.  BELT
OF 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW -- SAMPLED ATTM BY REGIONAL VWP DATA AND
PROGGED BY MODELS -- SHOULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF MOIST SECTOR THROUGH
REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COUNTERACT SFC WLY COMPONENT IN
ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EXISTS OVER PORTIONS LOWER MI --
PARTICULARLY INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE SFC WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN
MOST STRONGLY BACKED.  THIS SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WITH NEARLY 100 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH POSSIBLE AND
200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN/MS...
REF SPC WWS 578/579 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM
FORECAST INFORMATION.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO DECREASE WITH SWD
EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION...HOWEVER WEAK CAP AND LARGE NUMBER OF
TSTMS SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL EVENTS.

...SRN PLAINS TO CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...
18Z AMA RAOB SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CAP REMAINING IN PLACE...AND CAPPING
MAY CONSIDERABLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE E OF MOUNTAINS ACROSS SRN
PLAINS FOR MUCH OF AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION FORMING OVER HIGH TERRAIN
OF NRN NM MAY PRODUCE STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE COMPLEX DEVELOPS AND MOVES SEWD INVOF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM PRIOR OK MCS.  CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG
AND BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND NEAR SFC FRONT...ENHANCING UPSLOPE
LIFT AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
150-250 J/KG SRH POSSIBLE FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT CELL MOTIONS...WHICH
IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAKNESS OF AMBIENT FLOW FIELDS ALOFT.
MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE FROM AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER E-CENTRAL NM
TO AROUND 3000 J/KG PORTIONS NW TX.

..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.