[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051622
SWODY1
SPC AC 051620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
CDS 30 NW CDS 60 NE AMA 25 WSW GCK 30 WNW GLD 30 W SNY 20 ENE BFF 45
ENE AIA 55 SSE 9V9 30 WSW SPW 25 W DBQ 30 WNW FWA 20 W ZZV 35 NNW
CRW 35 SSW CRW 30 SW 5I3 15 S BWG 30 ESE UNO 35 NNW FYV 30 W OKC 25
E CDS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
3B1 25 N BAF 25 SW POU 30 E AVP 15 NW BGM 10 WNW SYR 25 WSW MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 25 ENE CNM
30 S TCC 35 ESE LVS 25 NW SAF 45 SSE FMN 70 S 4BL 45 NNW GCN 50 NE
LAS 30 WNW LAS 70 W DRA 35 NW NID 45 N BFL 10 ESE FAT 55 NNE SAC 35
S SVE 15 NNW RNO 30 SSE NFL 10 E U31 55 WSW DPG 35 N PUC 15 NE VEL
55 ESE RKS 40 WSW RWL 25 SE BPI 15 ENE IDA 27U 80 NW FCA ...CONT...
55 N GGW 20 SW SDY 15 NNE Y22 40 WSW JMS 35 N AXN 60 NNE MSP 10 NW
TVC 30 NNE MBS 20 ENE MTC ...CONT... 25 S CRP 40 SSE AUS 25 NNW GGG
25 NNW ELD HOT 35 ENE PGO 25 ENE MLC 15 E ADM 25 NNW BWD 55 SSW SJT
40 NW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL U.S. INTO OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERIOR NERN U.S....

....MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
TROUGH THAT EJECTED FROM SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY THE CLOSED
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY NEWD FROM SERN NEB INTO IA.
REMNANT MCS FROM AN ACTIVE SEVERE NIGHT ACROSS PLAINS NOW MOVING EWD
ACROSS SRN IL. THE MDT WLY FLOW S OF LOW CENTER HAS SPREAD AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EWD INTO
WRN OH VALLEY. COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST 
BOUNDARY LAYER...DEWPOINTS AOA 70F...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG COMMON ACROSS
MID MS AND OH VALLEYS.

12Z ETA/ETAKF MODEL SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW  OVER IA AND SE INTO IL.  THIS IS CONDITIONAL ...DEPENDENT ON
HOW RAPIDLY THE AIR MASS THIS AREA CAN RECOVER FROM CURRENT MCS
ACTIVITY.  WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATING EWD ACROSS MID MS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND 25-30 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR
PROFILES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON E AND SE OF LOW CENTER MOVING ACROSS IA INTO IL.

ONGOING MCS SRN IL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD AND POSSIBLY INTENSIFY
ACROSS OH  VALLEY AS STRONG HEATING ENHANCES CURRENTLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY WIND DAMAGE
WITH THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO.

...CENTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WITH MOST IMPORTANT UPPER FEATURE THE S/WV
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY LATER
TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN
RAPIDITY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.  CAP IS A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY...THUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON IN HIGH PLAINS  VICINITY AND E
OF N/S DRY LINE WRN KS TO SWRN TX.  THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK COUPLED WITH VEERING
SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY ENHANCE LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL

IN THE 12Z ETA THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR AN MCS DROPPING SEWD
TONIGHT ACROSS WRN KS INTO NRN OK AS S/WV TROUGH/MID LEVEL WIND MAX
ENTERS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN WRN NE/NERN CO WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH
THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY
SEWD INTO A 20-30 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED IN NEXT OUTLOOK IF THIS SCENARIO APPEARS LIKELY.

...NERN U.S...
THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD LE/LO WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RATHER WARM LAPSE
RATES...LESS THAN 6C/KM...AND ABOUT 30 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW...SEVERE
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A LOW END WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 07/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.