[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 052023
SWODY1
SPC AC 052020

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
LTS 10 WSW CDS LBL LAA 40 E FCL BFF 35 NW BBW OFK 30 W RST LSE CGX
20 W CMH 15 SSE EKN 25 SSE PHL 10 ENE ORF 10 S SPA 15 SW CHA 20 NNE
MSL 30 WSW BWG TUL 25 SSE LTS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
BML ORH 25 WNW GON 25 S POU 25 ENE AVP 40 ENE BGM 30 E MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 25 ENE CNM
30 S TCC 35 ESE LVS 25 NW SAF 45 SSE FMN 70 S 4BL 45 NNW GCN 50 NE
LAS 30 WNW LAS 70 W DRA 35 NW NID 45 N BFL 10 ESE FAT RBL MHS SVE 30
SSE NFL 10 E U31 DPG 30 S EVW 40 N VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 WSW RWL 25 SE
BPI 15 ENE IDA 27U 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N GGW 20 SW SDY 15 NNE
Y22 40 WSW JMS 35 N AXN 60 NNE MSP 10 NW TVC 30 NNE MBS 20 ENE MTC
...CONT... 25 S CRP 40 SSE AUS TYR 25 NNW ELD HOT 35 ENE PGO MLC SPS
ABI 55 SSW SJT 40 NW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL ROCKIES TO SRN
APPALACHIANS AND VA/MD TIDEWATER...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN NY...NEW
ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF CONUS EXCEPT GULF COAST AND SWRN STATES. 
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA AREA -- WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY BY 06/12Z.  MEANWHILE UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER SERN MT/NERN WY
SHOULD DIG SEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
-- CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER ERN GREAT LAKES...SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY END OF PERIOD.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ASSOCIATED LOW OVER S-CENTRAL IA...WHICH IS FCST
TO MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD TOWARD DBQ-MSN AREA BY 06/12Z.  TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS SWRN IA AND EXTREME NWRN MO BECOMING
STATIONARY OVER ERN KS/NEB BORDER AREA...THEN WNWWD ACROSS MCK/IML
REGION INTO ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE OVER SRN NEB PANHANDLE.  FRONT
SHOULD MOVE SEWD AGAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS HIGH PLAINS
AS A COLD FRONT...AND SEWD ACROSS MOST OF IA AND NRN MO.  DRYLINE IS
ANALYZED FROM WRN NEB LOW SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN CO AND TX/NM BORDER
REGION.  ALSO...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM ONGOING KY MCS
WSWWD ACROSS MO OZARKS TO SERN KS.  NRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ARCS FROM MCS NWWD OVER N-CENTRAL IL THEN WWD ACROSS SRN
IA...BECOMING DIFFUSE WWD TOWARD COLD FRONT.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
TSTMS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER CYS
RIDGE...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS CO/NEB.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OF SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS.  REF SPC WW 563 AND ASSOCIATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
REASONABLY PROGGED BY ETA MODEL TO EVOLVE INTO MCS ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING NRN OK BY END OF PERIOD.
 DAMAGING WIND IS MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT...WITH SPORADIC HAIL ALSO
ANTICIPATED.  THEREFORE A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED/CONCENTRATED WIND
PROBABILITIES IS DRAWN.

...OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TIDEWATER...
REF SPC WWS 562/564 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST
SITUATION OVER KY/INDIANA/TN...ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING MCS THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND.  MOIST AND DIABATICALLY
HEATED INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AS
FAR E AS MOUNTAINS OF ERN KY...SRN WV AND ERN TN.  SRN PORTION OF
THIS COMPLEX SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD SOMEWHAT...INTO HIGHER THETAE OF
ERN TN...RESULTING IN NET SEWD TURN.  WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EXTENDS
EWD TOWARD VA/MD TIDEWATER REGION AMIDST FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.

...OZARKS REGION...
INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION -- MOVING THROUGH LAYER OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO -- HAS WEAKENED. 
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION... SFC
BASED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND THIS AFTERNOON.  MODIFIED
18Z SGF RAOB SUGGESTS CAPE NEARLY GONE WITH SFC TEMPS LOW 90S AND
DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S...AS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  THIS
YIELDS VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE...AMIDST
SHEAR PROFILES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW
ECHOES.  SGF HODOGRAPH...AVAILABLE VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW
30-40 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM AGL LAYER...AND AROUND 150 J/KG SRH...WITH
SLIGHT VEERING IN LOWEST 3 KM. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED
LOCALLY ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...NEAR WHICH OVERALL SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE MAXIMIZED.

...IA AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...
ARC OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE OF MIDLEVEL
VORTEX...MAINLY FROM IA AND EXTREME NRN MO EWD TO NWRN IL AND SERN
WI.  A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO HAIL/WIND THREAT. 
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED CLEARING THIS REGION...BEHIND EARLY MCS
AND ON BOTH SIDES OF OLD OUTFLOW POOL. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING
WILL YIELD FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG.  BACKED
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW -- E THROUGH NE OF SFC LOW...AMIDST STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC FORCING -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.  EXPECT THREAT TO
DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS DIABATIC SFC COOLING REDUCES SBCAPE.

...NERN CONUS...
MARGINAL SLGT RISK AREA WITH PRINCIPAL THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND...AND AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A TORNADO OR TWO.  TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE...IN 
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUITABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND SMALL
BOWS.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW --
WITH GREATEST SLY COMPONENT -- WILL REMAIN E OF HUDSON
VALLEY...WHERE 0-3 KM SRH IN 150-200 J/KG RANGE IS POSSIBLE. 
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH
REMAINDER DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY MID-UPPER
60S F...LOW LCL AND WEAK CAPPING.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK
LAPSE RATES ALOFT -- ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC IN
MOST AREAS.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DROP MARKEDLY AFTER SUNSET AS
MAIN CONVECTIVE FORCING REGIME MOVES INTO MORE STABLE MARINE AIR
MASS AND AS SFC COOLING STABILIZES MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AWAY
FROM COAST.

..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.